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TOKYO – Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party scored a decisive victory in the December 14 parliamentary election, with Japanese voters demonstrating their overwhelming approval of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s macroeconomic policy agenda. | 發自東京——日本自民黨在今年12月14日的國會大選中取得了決定性的勝利，因為日本選民們一面倒地支援首相安倍晉三的巨集觀經濟政策議程。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
雖然選民投票率還是相對較低——這在很大程度上源自於這類事務的某種技術性本質——但這場選舉所傳達出來的資訊也非常清晰：大多數日本人都不願意回到“安倍經濟學”之前那種低迷經濟軌道中去。 | Though voter turnout was relatively low, owing largely to the somewhat technical nature of the issues, the election’s message was clear: most Japanese abhor the prospect of a return to the grim economic trajectory that prevailed in Japan before “Abenomics.” | 翻譯成中文。 |
When the first “arrow” of Abenomics – a fiscal stimulus program – was launched nearly two years ago, asset markets' immediate response was positive. | 當安倍經濟學的第一支箭——財政刺激計劃——在兩年前射出之後，資產市場立刻作出了積極迴應。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
而安倍經濟學的第二支箭——貨幣寬鬆——則強化了這一效應。 | The second arrow of Abenomics – monetary easing – intensified these effects. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在過去兩年中，日本股票市場的市值幾乎翻了一倍，使消費者的財富得到了增長。 | In the last two years, Japan’s stock market has almost doubled in value, increasing the wealth of Japanese consumers. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Moreover, the yen has fallen by nearly one-third against the US dollar, from around ¥80 to nearly ¥120 per dollar, invigorating Japan’s export industries. | 此外，日元對美元貶值了近三分之一，從原來的約80日元兌1美元下降到近120日元，令日本的出口工業蓬勃發展。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
更令人鼓舞的則是勞動力市場的變化發展，跟資產市場不同的是，這反映出了結果，而非僅僅是預期。 | Even more encouraging are developments in the labor market, which, unlike those in asset markets, reflect outcomes, not expectations. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Here, too, the news is good. | 在這方面形勢也十分喜人。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
勞動力市場得到了鞏固，失業率維持在3. 5%，而職位和求職者的比率則高於1。 | The labor market has tightened, with unemployment standing at 3.5% and the job-to-applicant ratio above parity. | 翻譯成中文。 |
無可否認，這其中還存在的一些挫折：日本的GDP在第二和第三季度出現了收縮。 | To be sure, there have been some setbacks: Japan’s GDP shrank in the second and third quarters of 2014. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但這一由於四月份提升消費稅（從5%提到8%）所導致的下滑狀況不能歸罪於安倍經濟學。 | But the downturn, which resulted from April’s consumption-tax hike – from 5% to 8% – cannot be blamed on Abenomics. | 翻譯成中文。 |
事實上，安倍只是在遵從由上屆日本民主黨政府所通過的一項法律而已。 | Indeed, Abe was honoring a law enacted by the previous government, led by the Democratic Party of Japan. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The first two arrows of Abenomics were aimed at stimulating demand – and they were extremely effective. | 安倍經濟學的頭兩支箭都旨在刺激需求——而且也極為有效。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The consumption-tax hike was needed to sustain them in flight. Unfortunately, the hike was too large to keep them aloft. | 同時也需要提升消費稅來維持這兩支箭的順利飛行，但不幸的是，此次提升的幅度過大，反而對這兩項政策造成了阻礙。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
好訊息是增稅的影響只是暫時的，並將很快開始逐漸消失，而工業產量則會接近滿負荷。 | The good news is that the tax hike’s impact is temporary. Soon, it will begin to taper off, and industrial output will approach full capacity. | 翻譯成中文。 |
當需求開始超過供給的時候，需求端的刺激政策將逐漸變得無效，是時候射出安倍經濟學的第三支箭：強化增長的結構性改革。 | When demand begins to exceed supply, demand-side stimulus policies will become increasingly ineffective, and it will be time to launch the third arrow of Abenomics: growth-enhancing structural reforms. | 翻譯成中文。 |
為了提升生產力增長並改善日本的經濟競爭力，這類改革極有必要。 | Such reforms are essential to raise productivity growth and improve the Japanese economy’s competitiveness. | 翻譯成中文。 |
而其中則凸顯出四項要點： | Four imperatives stand out. | 翻譯成中文。 |
首要任務應當是消除——或至少要減少——遏制經濟活力的一大堆政府管制。 | The first task should be to eliminate – or, at least, reduce – the thicket of government regulations that is stifling economic dynamism. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The current system is so convoluted and complex that it took more than three decades to open a new medical school in Tokyo. | 現行的系統是如此的繁瑣複雜，以致在東京開設一所新醫學院需要花費超過30年時間。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Likewise, flights to Haneda airport, a convenient connection to the Tokyo city area, have been rationed. | 同樣，飛往羽田機場這個通往東京市區的便利轉接點的航班也受到限制。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
This is no formula for long-term economic success. | 這顯然不是一個促進長期經濟繁榮的做法。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Furthermore, Japan’s government should push to complete negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is currently being negotiated among 12 countries, from Mexico to the United States to Vietnam. | 此外，日本政府應當加緊完成跨太平洋夥伴計劃的談判。 目前已經有十二個國家參與該項談判，涵蓋從墨西哥到美國再到越南的廣大區域。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The TPP would improve Japan’s trade prospects considerably, including in sensitive sectors like agriculture, where exports of fast-moving consumer goods like flowers and vegetables would benefit. | 這一夥伴計劃極大提升日本的貿易前景，包括像在農業這樣的敏感部門，因為像鮮花和蔬菜之類快速消費品的出口將因此而受益。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Japan’s leaders must also work to expand the workforce, which faces severe constraints, owing largely to the country’s rapidly aging population. | 日本領導人也必須擴大由於本國的快速老齡化而面臨嚴重製約的勞動力隊伍。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
在缺乏大規模移民，日本又不準備開放移民的情況下，一個相對簡單的解決方案將是把更多的女性融入勞動力大軍。 | In the absence of large-scale immigration, to which Japanese remain unamenable, one relatively simple solution would be to integrate more women into the labor force. | 翻譯成中文。 |
A 10% increase in Japan’s female labor-force participation rate – an entirely attainable goal – would translate into an almost 5% gain in total labor-force participation. | 如果日本的女性勞動力參與率能提升10%——這是一個完全可以實現的目標——那就將把整體的勞動力參與率提升近5%。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
最後安倍政府必須削減企業稅率，使其與國際標準接軌。 | Finally, Abe’s government must reduce the corporate-tax rate to align it more closely with international standards. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在國際間日漸激烈的外國投資爭奪戰中，通過驅使企業將自身的鉅額現金儲備投入到更具生產力的活動當中，減少企業稅率將在事實上增加日本的稅收收入。 | Amid increasingly intense international competition to attract foreign investment, reducing the corporate tax would actually increase Japan’s tax revenues, by spurring companies to invest their vast cash stockpiles in more productive activities. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Now that Abe’s government has a renewed mandate from Japanese voters, it must deliver on its promises – and that means decisive and comprehensive implementation of structural reforms. | 如今安倍政府已經獲得了日本選民的新一輪授權，也必須兌現自己的承諾——這意味著堅定而全面地實施結構改革。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Of course, this will require some sacrifices. | 這當然需要作出某些犧牲。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Indeed, households have already endured some hardship, brought about by the consumption-tax hike. | 事實上日本家庭已經在承受著因為消費稅提升而帶來的艱難狀況。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The next step is for Abe’s government to use its political capital to overcome vested interests, both in the bureaucracy and the business community. | 而安倍政府的下一步則是利用自身的政治資本去制服既得利益階層——包括政界與商界。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這意味著迫使企業放棄某些目前享有的特殊稅務優惠。 | This means compelling businesses to give up some of the special tax benefits they now enjoy. | 翻譯成中文。 |
For their part, politicians must participate in the taxpayer identification system. | 政治家則必須參與到納稅人識別體系中來。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
And bureaucrats must forego some of the power that excessive regulation affords them. | 而政府官員們則要放棄路管制所賦予他們的某些權利。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
If all of these groups join the Japanese public in accepting reasonable sacrifices, Abe’s government can fulfill its promise and build a thriving economy. | 如果上述這些團體能和日本民眾一道接受和承擔合理的犧牲，安倍政府就能兌現自身的承諾並建立一個興旺繁榮的經濟。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
For the sake of all Japanese – not to mention a world economy in need of a new source of dynamism – that promise deserves to be met. | 為了日本的整體利益——不要說一個需要新動力來源的世界經濟——這個承諾值得去兌現。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
安倍經濟學的迷失之箭 | The Missing Arrow of Abenomics | 翻譯成中文。 |
TOKYO – In his drive to kick-start the Japanese economy, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, shortly after taking office in 2012, introduced a large fiscal stimulus and put in place a bold program of monetary easing. | 東京—日本首相安倍晉三在2012年執政後不久就開始了振興日本經濟的政策，他引入了大規模財政刺激和激進的貨幣寬鬆計劃。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Since then, Japanese policymakers have been working to launch what Abe calls the third “arrow” of his agenda: arduous reforms of key industries and the demolition of structural barriers to growth. | 此後，日本決策者一直致力於啟動安倍所謂的第三支“箭”：重要行業的艱鉅改革計劃以及破除增長的結構性壁壘。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但專注於公共政策讓“第四支箭”——私人部門——被冷落一旁，似乎遭到了忽略。 | But the focus on public policy has left a “fourth arrow” – the private sector – untouched and seemingly ignored. | 翻譯成中文。 |
This is unfortunate, because the government cannot fix Japan’s ills on its own. | 這是不幸的，因為政府無法單槍匹馬治好日本病。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Annual productivity growth has been stubbornly sluggish, rarely rising above 2% for much of the past two decades, reflecting both missed opportunities and declining cost competitiveness. | 年生產率增長極其低迷，在過去20年中的大部分時間裡還不到2%，這表明機會被錯失，成本競爭力在下降。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Japan’s productivity slump permeates the entire economy; labor and capital productivity gains have nearly stalled in almost every sector – even in Japan’s signature advanced manufacturing industries. | 日本生產率大降是整個經濟的普遍現象； 幾乎所有部門的勞動和資本生產率都近乎停滯——即使是日本標誌性的發達的製造業。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Labor productivity in the transport-equipment sector, for example, is barely half that of Germany. | 比如，運輸裝置勞動生產率大約只有德國的一半。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
This trend puts annual GDP growth on course to average only 1.3% through 2025, implying a third consecutive decade of stagnation. | 這一趨勢意味著到2025年，日本年GDP增長率平均將只有1. 3%，連續第三個十年陷入停滯。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Such an outcome would coincide with – and exacerbate the effects of – an adverse demographic shift that will constrain fiscal revenues and drive up costs for universal health care and pension benefits. | 這一結果恰逢不利的人口趨勢——並將放大後者的效應——制約財政收入，增加全民醫療和退休金福利的成本。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
日本能否擺脫這一軌道取決於個體公司決定投資、改變工作場所政策、採用新技術以及嘗試未嘗試的業務模式。 | Japan’s ability to alter its trajectory depends on individual companies making decisions to invest, change workplace policies, deploy new technologies, and test untried business models. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Abe’s structural reforms will take time and political will to enact, but Japanese companies cannot afford to sit still. | 安倍的結構改革需要時間，還需要實施的政治意願，但日本公司決不能坐等。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
它們能夠也必須行動起來，不必等政府改變政策。 | They can and must act, without waiting for the government to change its policies. | 翻譯成中文。 |
In many cases, the economy’s bottlenecks are not regulatory in nature, but stem from entrenched ways of doing business. | 在許多情形中，經濟瓶頸並非監管，而是來自根深蒂固的生意經。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
New research by the McKinsey Global Institute examines Japan’s advanced manufacturing, retail, financial services, and health-care industries in detail – and finds substantial untapped productivity potential in every area. | 麥肯錫全球研究所（McKinsey Global Institute）的新研究詳細考察了日本發達的製造業、零售業、金融服務業和醫療業——發現這些領域無不存在巨大的未利用生產率潛力。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
For starters, Japanese firms must become more globally integrated. | 首先，日本企業必須更加融入全球。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
向增長最快的海外市場出口顯然是克服國內需求增長停滯的一個辦法。 | Exporting to the fastest-growing overseas markets is one obvious route to overcoming sluggish demand growth at home. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但是，日本企業所需要的不僅僅是將產品賣到海外，還需要擴大海外經營，組織更廣闊的國際人才網。 | But, rather than just selling products abroad, Japanese enterprises need to expand operations beyond their borders and cast a wider net for international talent. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Japanese companies have formidable R&D operations, but most will need to reconfigure them to obtain better returns and impact. | 日本公司擁有可怕的研發部門，但大部分需要重組以獲得更好的回報和影響。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這一過程必須首先理解客戶想要什麼並決心據此提供解決方案。 | The process must start with an understanding of what the customer wants and a determination to deliver solutions accordingly. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Closed and tightly managed R&D operations must be transformed into more fluid, open processes involving collaboration with customers and suppliers. | 管理嚴格的封閉研發業務必須變得更具流動性、更加開放，把客戶和供應商也包括進來。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Japanese companies will also need to improve their capabilities in areas such as marketing, pricing, and talent development. | 日本公司還需要提高營銷、定價和人才開發等領域的能力。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
While there are some pockets of excellence, most Japanese firms are severely lacking in these areas. | 儘管在這些領域表現出眾的日本企業不少，但大部分仍嚴重缺乏這方面的能力。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
To compete in global markets, they will need to achieve the same consistency in these areas that they have in their traditional areas of strength. | 要想在全球市場上競爭，它們需要實現與傳統優勢領域同樣的一致性。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Many Japanese companies have yet to digitize paper-based processes and replace outdated information-technology systems. | 許多日本公司至今仍未實現紙面流程的數字化和更新過時的資訊科技系統。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
其他公司可以跨越基本數字化，向新一代技術（如大資料分析）邁進，並從中獲益。 | Others would benefit from moving beyond basic digitization to next-generation technologies, such as big-data analytics. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Companies can also head off looming labor shortages with intelligent software systems and robotics. | 公司還可以用智慧軟體系統和機器人解決勞動力短缺的問題。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
製造商可以用物聯網和3D列印等技術擴大或代替流水線。 | Manufacturers can augment or replace their assembly lines with technologies such as the Internet of Things and 3D printing. | 翻譯成中文。 |
更廣泛地說，日本公司必須以業績和紀律為目標進行組織。 | More broadly, Japanese companies have to organize for performance and discipline. | 翻譯成中文。 |
隨著政策變化解放市場力量，企業將面臨更大的競爭。 | As policy changes unleash market forces, businesses will face greater competition. | 翻譯成中文。 |
一些企業也許需要重組或退出無利可圖的市場； 令一些企業也許必須進行兼併收購以實現規模經濟。 | Some may need to reorganize or exit unprofitable markets; others may have to undertake mergers and acquisitions to achieve economies of scale. | 翻譯成中文。 |
最後，股東和高管應該將業績目標與激勵掛鉤。 | Finally, shareholders and senior executives should tie performance goals to incentives. | 翻譯成中文。 |
一些日本大公司以開始將基於傳統年資的晉升模式改變為基於表現的薪酬結構。 | Some of Japan’s corporate giants have already begun shifting from traditional seniority-based advancement toward merit-based pay structures. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Others should follow their lead. | 其他公司應該效仿。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
提拔更年輕、更多樣化的人才能夠用新思維為組織注入活力。 | Promoting younger and more diverse talent can create agile organizations with fresh ideas. | 翻譯成中文。 |
如果日本私人部門奮起迎接挑戰，可以推動經濟走上更快的增長路徑。 | If Japan’s private sector rises to the challenge, it can move the economy onto a path of faster growth. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Innovations in one company would cascade across its entire industry by forcing competitors to raise their game. | 一家公司的創新獎迫使競爭者更加投入競爭，從而提升整個行業。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In the 1950s and 1960s, for example, Toyota introduced more efficient production processes that were eventually adopted by the entire automobile industry. | 比如，20世紀五六十年代，豐田引入了效率更高的生產流程，並最終被整個汽車行業所採用。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Instead of settling for a future of 1.3% annual GDP growth, Japan could attain roughly 3% annual growth through 2025. | 日本不應該滿足於1. 3%的未來年GDP增長率，它可以到2025年實現大約3%的年增長率。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Doing so would require the growth rate of labor productivity to more than double, but this is an attainable goal. | 這樣做要求勞動力生產率翻一番以上，但仍是可實現的目標。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
More than half of this growth increment can be met by adopting best practices that companies around the world already use, while technology can close much of the remaining gap. | 一大半增長增量可以通過採取全球公司已在使用的最佳實踐實現，而技術可以填補大部分餘下的空缺。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
日本商界領袖需要將大局觀和細節專注結合起來。 | Japanese business leaders need to combine big thinking with a focused attention to detail. | 翻譯成中文。 |
他們需要創造創新性產品，滲透新市場，積極地投資於裝置、技術和人才，同時仔細檢視經營的每個方面以發現低效和浪費。 | They will need to create innovative products, penetrate new markets, and make bold investments in equipment, technology, and talent, while simultaneously scrutinizing every aspect of their operations for inefficiency and waste. | 翻譯成中文。 |
傳統生意經必須拋棄。 | Traditional ways of doing business may have to be abandoned. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But there is ample scope to make progress and spur faster economic growth. | 但取得進步、刺激更快經濟增長的空間很大。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Immense trade flows, the rise of billions of new consumers in the emerging world, and technology breakthroughs are rapidly transforming the global economy. | 巨大的貿易流、新興世界數十億新消費者的崛起以及技術突破正在快速改變全球經濟。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Japan can shift its current trajectory by turning this wave of disruption into opportunity. | 日本可以將這一破壞潮轉化為機遇，擺脫當前的軌跡。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
From Russia With Unrequited Love | 對俄羅斯的單戀 | 翻譯成英文。 |
新德里—日本首相安倍晉三孜孜不倦地討好俄羅斯總統普京，在四年內和他進行了十多次會晤。 | NEW DELHI – Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has assiduously courted Russian President Vladimir Putin, meeting with him more than a dozen times in four years. | 翻譯成中文。 |
這個月，他在東京和家鄉山口縣（以溫泉聞名）接待了普京。 | This month he hosted Putin in Tokyo and in his hometown of Nagato (famed for its onsen, or natural hot springs). | 翻譯成中文。 |
但安倍的追求沒有給日本帶來什麼好處，倒是給俄羅斯送去了很多利益。 | But Abe’s courtship has so far yielded little for Japan, and much for Russia. | 翻譯成中文。 |
安倍對普京的外交姿態是他的戰略大局的一部分：將日本定位為中國的制衡力量和亞洲的再平衡力量。 日本、俄羅斯、中國和印度組成了一個亞洲戰略四邊形。 | Abe’s diplomatic overtures to Putin are integral to his broader strategy to position Japan as a counterweight to China, and to rebalance power in Asia, where Japan, Russia, China, and India form a strategic quadrangle. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Abe has already built a close relationship with India, and he sees improved relations with Russia – with which Japan never formally made peace after World War II – as the missing ingredient for a regional power equilibrium. | 安倍已經建立了與印度的緊密關係，並將改善對俄關係——二戰後日本從未與俄羅斯媾和——視為地區實力平衡的缺失的一角。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但安倍與俄羅斯構建信任的努力不僅是為了制衡中國的野心。 | But Abe’s trust-building efforts with Russia are not aimed only at checking Chinese aggression. | 翻譯成中文。 |
He also wants Russia to return its southernmost Kuril Islands – a resource-rich area known as the Northern Territories in Japan – which the Soviet Union seized just after the United States dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. | 他還希望俄羅斯歸還千島群島最南端擁有豐富資源的北方四島。 1945年美國在廣島和長期投下原子彈後，蘇聯佔領了這四個島嶼。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In exchange, Abe has offered economic aid, investments in Russia’s neglected Far East, and major energy deals. | 作為交換，安倍提出向俄羅斯提供經濟援助、投資被忽視的遠東地區以及能源大單。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但是，安倍面臨著多重阻礙。 | Abe has, however, encountered several obstacles. | 翻譯成中文。 |
首先，日本是以美國為首的對俄製裁的參與者。 | For starters, Japan is a participant in the US-led sanctions that were imposed on Russia after it annexed Crimea in March 2014. | 翻譯成中文。 |
These sanctions have pushed Russia closer to its traditional rival, China; and Putin has publicly identified the sanctions as a hindrance to concluding a peace treaty with Japan. | 制裁自2014年3月俄羅斯入侵克里米亞後開始實施，這讓俄羅斯與其傳統對手中國越走越近； 而普京公開表示制裁是日俄締結和平條約的障礙。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
作為對安倍的姿態的迴應，普京一直奉行強硬的討價還價。 | In response to Abe’s overtures, Putin has doggedly tried to drive a hard bargain. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Russia has bolstered its defenses on the four disputed islands, and, just prior to this month’s summit, he told the Japanese media that the current territorial arrangement suits Russian interests. | 俄羅斯加強了其在北方四島的防禦部署，而在本月峰會前夕普京告訴日本媒體，目前的領土狀況符合俄羅斯利益。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
“我們認為我們沒有領土問題，”他說，“只是日本認為它和俄羅斯之間存在領土問題。 | “We think that we have no territorial problems,” he said. “It’s Japan that thinks that it has a territorial problem with Russia.” | 翻譯成中文。 |