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Trump may well understand that what he proposes will violate World Trade Organization rules, but he may also know that it will take a long time for the WTO to rule against him. | 特朗普清楚知道他的提議會違反世貿規則，但他估計也明白世貿組織需要很長時間來推翻這一做法。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
And by then, America’s trade account may have been rebalanced. | 到那時候美國的貿易賬戶可能早就實現重新平衡了。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但這個博弈可是雙方面的：中國也可以採取類似但更為隱祕微妙的行動。 | But two can play that game: China can take similar actions, though its response is likely to be more subtle. | 翻譯成中文。 |
If a trade war were to break out, what would happen? | 那麼如果真爆發一場貿易戰的話，將會出現何種狀況？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
Trump may have reason to think he could win; after all, China is more dependent on exports to the US than the US is on exports to China, which gives the US an advantage. | 特朗普可能覺得自己有把握能贏； 畢竟中國對向美國出口的依賴要強於美國對中國出口，這是美國的優勢。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
But a trade war is not a zero-sum game. The US stands to lose as well. | 但貿易戰可不是一場此消彼長的零和遊戲，美國也會輸。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
中國的報復可能更具針對性，足以對美國造成嚴重的政治壓力。 | China may be more effective in targeting its retaliation to cause acute political pain. | 翻譯成中文。 |
And the Chinese may be in a better position to respond to US attempts to inflict pain on them than the US is to respond to the pain that China might inflict on Americans. | 而中國人可能比美國人處於更有利的地位來應對對方施加的危機。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
It’s anybody’s guess who can stand the pain better. | 大家都在猜測誰的承受能力更強：是普通民眾在泥潭裡長期掙扎的美國？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
還是即便在困難時期也得以實現超過6％增長的中國？ | Will it be the US, where ordinary citizens have already suffered for so long, or China, which, despite troubled times, has managed to generate growth in excess of 6%? | 翻譯成中文。 |
更巨集觀地看來，共和黨/特朗普的議程——其稅收削減甚至比標準的共和黨方案更為偏袒富人——意味著這些政策都是基於涓滴繁榮（富人多賺錢消費從而窮人有工作）的理念，也是里根時代供給側經濟學政策的延續——但這一政策從未奏效過。 | More broadly, the Republican/Trump agenda, with its tax cuts even more weighted toward the rich than the standard GOP recipe would imply, is based on the idea of trickle-down prosperity – a continuation of the Reagan era’s supply-side economics, which never actually worked. | 翻譯成中文。 |
惹火的言論或者半夜三點在推特上發表的胡言亂語至少能在一段時間內安撫那些被裡根革命所拋棄的憤世者。 | Fire-breathing rhetoric, or raving three a.m. tweets, may assuage the anger of those left behind by the Reagan revolution, at least for a while. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但這能維持要多久呢？ | But for how long? | 翻譯成中文。 |
And what happens then? | 隨後又會是何種狀況？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
特朗普可能喜歡顛覆常規的經濟學法則，因為他樂於奉行自己那一套巫術經濟學，但這是行不通的。 | Trump might like to repeal the ordinary laws of economics, as he goes about his version of voodoo economics. But he can’t. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Still, as the world’s largest economy leads the way into uncharted political waters in 2017 and beyond, it would be foolhardy for a mere mortal to attempt a forecast, other than to state the obvious: the waters will almost certainly be choppy, and many – if not most – pundit ships will sink along the way. | 而隨著美國這個全球最大經濟體在2017年及以後的年月進入一片未知的政治水域，除了指出一些顯而易見的事實之外，任何人類的預測都是不智的：這片水域幾乎肯定會激起風浪，而許多——如果不是大多數——預測專家的航船也將隨之傾覆沉沒。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
9/11 and the New Authoritarianism | 9/11和新獨裁專制主義 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Five years after the attacks on the Twin Towers in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, “9/11” is no longer a mere date. | 襲擊紐約雙子塔和華盛頓五角大樓五年後，“9/11”已經不再僅僅是一個日期了。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
它已經作為一個變革時代的某種開端或者是一個新的時代的開始而載入史冊。 | It has entered the history books as the beginning of something new, a new era perhaps, but in any case a time of change. | 翻譯成中文。 |
恐怖分子在馬德里和倫敦以及其他地方製造的爆炸事件也將被人銘記； 但是，只有“9/11”幾乎像“1914年8月”那樣成為了流行語。 | The terrorist bombings in Madrid and London and elsewhere will also be remembered; but it is “9/11” that has become the catchphrase, almost like “August 1914.” | 翻譯成中文。 |
But was it really a war that started on September 11, 2001? | 但是，那果真是一場開於2001年9月11日的戰爭嗎？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
並不是所有人都贊同這一美國式的觀點。 | Not all are happy about this American notion. | 翻譯成中文。 |
During the heyday of Irish terrorism in the UK, successive British governments went out of their way not to concede to the IRA the notion that a war was being waged. | 當愛爾蘭恐怖主義在英國猖獗之際，各屆英國政府都竭力不屈從於愛爾蘭共和軍的觀點，即正在進行一場戰爭。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
“戰爭”將會意味著把恐怖分子接受為合法的敵人，其含義與具有認同的交戰規則的一場血腥戰爭的對等體相同。 | “War” would have meant acceptance of the terrorists as legitimate enemies, in a sense as equals in a bloody contest for which there are accepted rules of engagement. | 翻譯成中文。 |
這既非對恐怖主義行為的正確描述，也不是有用的詞彙。 恐怖分子應該更為準確地被稱為罪犯。 | This is neither a correct description nor a useful terminology for terrorist acts, which are more correctly described as criminal. | 翻譯成中文。 |
By calling them war – and naming an opponent, usually al-Qaeda and its leader, Osama bin Laden – the United States government has justified domestic changes that, before the 9/11 attacks, would have been unacceptable in any free country. | 但是通過稱之為戰爭、並把基地組織及其領導人本拉登點名為對手，美國政府給某些國內變化提供了理由。 這些國內變化在9/11襲擊之前是不會被任何自由國家所接受的。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Most of these changes were embodied in the so-called “USA Patriot Act.” | 這些變化的大多數都體現在所謂的“美國愛國者法案”上。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Though some of the changes simply involved administrative regulations, the Patriot Act’s overall effect was to erode the great pillars of liberty, such as habeas corpus , the right to recourse to an independent court whenever the state deprives an individual of his freedom. | 儘管某些變化僅僅涉及到行政規定，但是，愛國者法案的整體效果卻是侵蝕自由的支柱，例如人身保護，也就是無論何時國家剝奪個人自由，均有向獨立法院尋求救助的權利。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
很久以來，古巴關塔那摩灣的戰俘營成為了聞所未聞的象徵，也就是不經審判逮捕被剝奪所有人權的“非法戰鬥人員”。 | From an early date, the prison camp at Guantánamo Bay in Cuba became the symbol of something unheard of: the arrest without trial of “illegal combatants” who are deprived of all human rights. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The world now wonders how many more of these non-human humans are there in how many places. | 如今，世界並不知道在多少地方還有多少更多的遭受非人待遇的人。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
對於其他所有人而言，好像是宣佈了某種緊急狀態，允許國家干涉基本民權。 | For everyone else, a kind of state of emergency was proclaimed that has allowed state interference in essential civil rights. | 翻譯成中文。 |
邊境檢查已經成為許多人的煎熬，警察起訴給很多人帶來了負擔。 | Controls at borders have become an ordeal for many, and police persecution now burdens quite a few. | 翻譯成中文。 |
一種恐懼的氣候讓任何看似可疑或者行為可疑的人、特別是穆斯林生活困難。 | A climate of fear has made life hard for anyone who looks suspicious or acts suspiciously, notably for Muslims. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Such restrictions on freedom did not meet with much public opposition when they were adopted. | 當採取這些限制自由的措施的時候並沒有遇到很多公眾的反對。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
相反，總體而言，那些措施的批評者，而非支持者發現遇到了麻煩。 | On the contrary, by and large it was the critics, not the supporters, of these measures who found themselves in trouble. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在英國，布萊爾首相全力支援美國的態度，政府引入了類似的措施，甚至提出了一個新的理論。 | In Britain, where Prime Minister Tony Blair supported the US attitude entirely, the government introduced similar measures and even offered a new theory. | 翻譯成中文。 |
布萊爾第一個主張安全是第一自由。 | Blair was the first to argue that security is the first freedom. | 翻譯成中文。 |
In other words, liberty is not the right of individuals to define their own lives, but the right of the state to restrict individual freedom in the name of a security that only the state can define. | 換言之，自由並非是個人確定自身生活的權利，而是國家以安全的名義限制個人自由的權利。 只有國家才能確定安全的含義。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這就是一個新的獨裁主義的開始。 | This is the beginning of a new authoritarianism. | 翻譯成中文。 |
這一問題存在於所有受到恐怖主義威脅的國家，儘管在許多國家中這已經變得非常具體。 | The problem exists in all countries affected by the threat of terrorism, though in many it has not become quite as specific. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在大多數歐洲大陸國家，”9/11“已經成為一個美國人的日子。 | In most countries of continental Europe, “9/11” has remained an American date. | 翻譯成中文。 |
There is even a debate – and indeed some evidence – concerning the question of whether involvement in the “war against terrorism” has actually increased the threat of terrorist acts. | 甚至還有人辯論，而且確實還有證據表明，參與到“反恐戰爭”之中是否實際上增加了恐怖主義行動的威脅。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Germans certainly use this argument to stay out of the action wherever possible. | 德國人當然在可能的情況下利用這一論點置身度外。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
This stance, however, has not prevented the spread of something for which a German word is used in other languages, too: Angst . | 但是，這一立場並沒有防止德語中所說的憂慮的擴散。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
A diffuse anxiety is gaining ground. | 一種彌散性的焦慮正在擴大。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
人們感到不安，特別是在旅行的時候。 | People feel uneasy and worried, especially when traveling. | 翻譯成中文。 |
任何一個火車事故或者飛機墜毀現在都首先被懷疑是恐怖主義行為。 | Any train accident or airplane crash is now at first suspected of being an act of terrorism. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Thus, 9/11 has meant, directly or indirectly, a great shock, both psychologically and to our political systems. | 這樣，9/11已經直接或間接地意味著一個巨大的震驚事件，在心理上以及對於政治體系而言都是如此。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
While terrorism is fought in the name of democracy, the fight has in fact led to a distinct weakening of democracy, owing to official legislation and popular angst. | 儘管以民主的名義與恐怖主義作戰，實際上這一斗爭由於官方的立法以及民眾的憂慮而已經導致對民主明顯的削弱。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
9/11攻擊的令人擔憂的特性之一就是除了罪犯們仇恨西方及其生活方式之外，很難看到他們的目的。 | One of the worrying features of the 9/11 attacks is that it is hard to see their purpose beyond the perpetrators’ resentment of the West and its ways. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但是西方社會的主要特徵，即民主和法治卻已經在捍衛者手中遭到了嚴重的損害，其程度超過遠遠超過其攻擊者。 | But the West’s key features, democracy and the rule of law, have taken a far more severe battering at the hands of their defenders than by their attackers. | 翻譯成中文。 |
最重要的是，需要採取兩個步驟來在受到9/11後果影響的��主國家恢復對自由的信心。 | Two steps, above all, are needed to restore confidence in liberty within the democracies affected by the legacy of 9/11. | 翻譯成中文。 |
首先，我們必須確保應對恐怖主義挑戰的相關立法是嚴格具有時限的。 | First, we must make certain that the relevant legislation to meet the challenge of terrorism is strictly temporary. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Some of today’s restrictions on habeas corpus and civil liberties have sunset clauses restricting their validity; all such rules should be re-examined by parliaments regularly. | 當今的某些對人身自由以及民權的限制含有限制其時效的廢止條款。 所有這些法規都應當定期接受議會的重新審查。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Second, and more importantly, our leaders must seek to calm, rather than exploit, public anxiety. | 第二，也是更為重要的是，我們的領導人應當力求平息、而不是利用公眾的焦慮。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
我們目前“交戰”的恐怖分子無法獲勝，因為他們的黑暗的觀點永遠不會贏得廣泛的公眾合法認可。 | The terrorists with whom we are currently at “war” cannot win, because their dark vision will never gain broad popular legitimacy. | 翻譯成中文。 |
That is all the more reason for democrats to stand tall in defending our values – first and foremost by acting in accordance with them. | 這也就是民主派人士應當身先士卒、首要地以遵循我們的價值觀的方式來捍衛它們的原因。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
9/11 in Perspective | 9·11：十年後的盤點 | 翻譯成英文。 |
NEW YORK – It was a decade ago that 19 terrorists took control of four planes, flew two into the twin towers of the World Trade Center, hit the Pentagon with a third, and crashed the fourth in a field in Pennsylvania after passengers resisted and made it impossible for the terrorists to complete their malevolent mission. | 紐約——十年前，19名恐怖分子劫持了四架民航客機，其中兩架撞上世貿中心雙子塔，第三架撞擊了五角大樓，第四架在乘客的反抗下無法完成襲擊，墜毀於賓夕法尼亞曠野。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In a matter of hours, more than 3,000 innocent people, mostly Americans, but also people from 115 other countries, had their lives suddenly and violently taken from them. | 只不過幾個小時，3000多無辜平民被突如其來的暴行奪去了生命，其中大多是美國人，但也有來自其他115個國家的人。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
2001年9月11日，以任何標準看都是一個可怕的慘劇，但它並非一個歷史轉折點。 | September 11, 2001, was a terrible tragedy by any measure, but it was not a historical turning point. | 翻譯成中文。 |
It did not herald a new era of international relations in which terrorists with a global agenda prevailed, or in which such spectacular terrorist attacks became commonplace. On the contrary, 9/11 has not been replicated. | 它並未開啟一個由全球恐怖主義主導國際關係的新時代，類似的大規模恐怖襲擊也沒有變成家常便飯。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Despite the attention devoted to the “Global War on Terrorism,” the most important developments of the last ten years have been the introduction and spread of innovative information technologies, globalization, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the political upheavals in the Middle East. | 雖然人們在“全球反恐戰爭”上投注了大量精力，但是過去10年最重要的進展是資訊科技的創新與傳播、全球化、伊拉克與阿富汗戰爭以及中東的政治動盪。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
未來一個階段的關鍵，則是美國整修其經濟大廈的努力，中國在國內國際事務中的走向，各國政府在重振經濟增長、控制核擴散以及應對能源與環境挑戰方面的合作能力。 | As for the future, it is much more likely to be defined by the United States’ need to put its economic house in order; China’s trajectory within and beyond its borders; and the ability of the world’s governments to cooperate on restoring economic growth, stemming the spread of nuclear weapons, and meeting energy and environmental challenges. | 翻譯成中文。 |
It is and would be wrong to make opposition to terrorism the centerpiece of what responsible governments do in the world. | 如果把反對恐怖主義當成負責任的政府在世界上的核心要務，這是錯誤的。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
恐怖主義仍是邊緣角色，它們的吸引力終歸是有限的。 | Terrorists continue to be outliers with limited appeal at best. | 翻譯成中文。 |
They can destroy but not create. | 它們只破壞，不建設。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
值得注意的是，人們走上開羅和大馬士革街頭，呼喊的並不是基地組織的口號，也沒有對它的綱領表示支援。 | It is worth noting that the people who went into the streets of Cairo and Damascus calling for change were not shouting the slogans of Al Qaeda or supporting its agenda. | 翻譯成中文。 |
此外，種種措施已經成功地令恐怖分子退入守勢。 | Moreover, measures have been implemented to push back, successfully, against terrorists. | 翻譯成中文。 |
情報資源已重新配置，國境線已變得更安全，社會已變得更有彈性。 | Intelligence assets have been redirected. Borders have been made more secure and societies more resilient. | 翻譯成中文。 |
International cooperation has increased markedly, in part because governments that cannot agree on many things can agree on the need to cooperate in this area. | 反恐國際合作顯著增強，部分是因為，各國政府都覺得需要在這一領域加強合作，儘管它們在其他領域頗有分歧。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
軍事力量也扮演著某種角色。 | Military force has played a role as well. | 翻譯成中文。 |
基地組織喪失了位於阿富汗的巢穴，正式因為向它提供庇護的塔利班政府被推翻。 | Al Qaeda lost its base in Afghanistan when the Taliban government that had provided it sanctuary was ousted from power. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Osama bin-Laden was finally found and killed by US Special Forces in the suburbs of Islamabad. | 奧薩馬·本·拉登最終被美國特種部隊找到並擊斃。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Drones – unmanned aircraft that are remotely steered – have proven to be effective in killing a significant number of terrorists, including many of the most important leaders. | 軍事無人機在擊斃恐怖組織頭目的行動中作用非凡。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
軟弱的政府可以得到加強，縱容乃至支援恐怖主義的政府則必須為此負責。 | Weak governments can be made stronger; governments that tolerate or support terrorism must be held accountable. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但進展不應被稱作勝利。 | But progress is not to be confused with victory. | 翻譯成中文。 |
恐怖分子和恐怖主義不可能根除，就像我們不可能從地球上消滅疾病一樣。 | Terrorists and terrorism cannot be eliminated any more than we can rid the world of disease. | 翻譯成中文。 |
There will always be those who will resort to force against innocent men, women, and children in pursuit of political goals. | 總會有人試圖對無辜者動用武力以追求其政治目標，不論是對男人、婦女還是兒童。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
事實上，恐怖分子在某些領域走在了前頭。 | Indeed, terrorists are advancing in some areas. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Pakistan remains a sanctuary for Al Qaeda and some of the world’s other most dangerous terrorists. | 巴基斯坦仍在為基地組織和世界上其他一些最危險的恐怖分子提供庇護所。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
A mixture of instability, government weakness, and ideology in countries such as Yemen, Libya, Somalia, and Nigeria are providing fertile territory for terrorists to organize, train, and mount operations – much as they did in Afghanistan did a decade ago. | 由於局勢動盪、政府軟弱和意識形態等等原因，葉門、利比亞、索馬利亞和奈及利亞也在淪為恐怖主義滋生的沃土，它們在那些地方組織、訓練、實施行動，就像在十年前的阿富汗一樣。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
New groups constantly emerge from the ruins of old ones. | 舊的組織剛被摧毀，新的組織就冒出頭來。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
There is also a growing danger of homegrown terrorism. | 本土恐怖主義的危險也在增長。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
我們在英國和美國都看到了這種跡象。 | We have seen it in Great Britain and the US. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The Internet, one of the great inventions of the modern Western world, has shown itself to be a weapon that can be used to incite and train those who wish to cause harm to that world. | 網際網路，這一現代西方世界的偉大發明，也被當成武器，激勵並訓練那些試圖危害這個世界的人。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
2003年10月，時任美國國防部長拉姆斯菲爾德曾提出一個問題，至今仍很中肯：“我們每天俘虜、擊斃、關押和改造過來的恐怖分子，能比伊斯蘭學校和激進宗教人士每天招募、訓練和派遣出來反對我們的人數多嗎？ | The question raised in October 2003 by then US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld is no less relevant today: “Are we capturing, killing, or deterring and dissuading more terrorists every day than the madrassas and the radical clerics are recruiting, training, and deploying against us?” | 翻譯成中文。 |
”如果將一切等量齊觀，那我們也許已經做到了。 | All things being equal, we probably are. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但恐怖分子的任何一點微小成功，對開放社會都意味著高昂的生命和金錢成本，從這個意義上說，我��得不償失。 | But even small terrorist successes are costly in terms of lives, money, and making open societies less so. | 翻譯成中文。 |
那我們該怎麼辦？ | What is to be done? | 翻譯成中文。 |
Alas, there is no single or silver bullet. | 可惜沒有一蹴而就的辦法。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The establishment of a Palestinian state will not be enough for those terrorists who want to see the elimination of the Jewish state, any more than reaching a compromise over Kashmir will satisfy those Pakistan-based terrorists with bigger agendas vis-à-vis India. | 巴勒斯坦建國還是不夠，因為恐怖分子想要消滅猶太人的國家； 在克什米爾問題上達成妥協，也無法滿足巴基斯坦恐怖分子對印度更大的領土要求。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
減少失業當然是件好事，但許多恐怖分子並非窮人出身。 | Reducing unemployment is desirable, of course, but many terrorists do not come from poverty. | 翻譯成中文。 |
幫助中東和其他地方的社會變得更民主有助於緩解邊緣化作用，遏制極端主義，但這說起來比做起來容易。 | Helping to make societies in the Middle East and elsewhere more democratic might reduce the alienation that can lead to radicalism and worse, but this is easier said than done. | 翻譯成中文。 |
當然，我們需要繼續想辦法，讓我們變強，讓恐怖分子變弱。 | Of course, we want to continue to find ways to make ourselves less vulnerable and terrorists more so. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But what may be most important, particularly in the Arab and Islamic communities, is to end any acceptance of terrorism. | 但最重要的是阻止恐怖主義以任何方式進行傳播，尤其是在阿拉伯和伊斯蘭社會。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
2009年聖誕節，奈及利亞的一位父親向美國駐拉各斯大使館警告說，他擔心他的兒子會做出可怕的事情來，從而阻止了後者在飛往底特律的航班上引爆一枚炸彈，這就是一個很好的例子。 | The Nigerian father who warned the US embassy in Lagos that he feared what his own son might do – before that same young man attempted to detonate a bomb aboard a flight to Detroit on Christmas Day 2009 – is an example of just this. | 翻譯成中文。 |
只有當更多的父母、教師和社會領袖以這樣的方式行動起來，才能令恐怖分子的來源枯竭，執法部門才能獲得民眾的全力配合。 | Only when more parents, teachers, and community leaders behave likewise will recruitment of terrorists dry up and law-enforcement authorities receive full cooperation from the populations they police. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Terrorism must lose its legitimacy among those who have historically supported or tolerated it before it will lose its potency. | 在那些傳統上支援或縱容恐怖主義的地方，恐怖主義必須先喪失其合法性，才會進一步喪失能量。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
所有人的跨大西洋貿易 | Transatlantic Trade for All | 翻譯成中文。 |