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馬德里——隨著2016年的結束，2017年的前景被不確定性所籠罩。 | MADRID – As 2016 comes to an end, the outlook for 2017 is shrouded in uncertainty. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Tensions in the Middle East are rising, and populist movements have appeared in Europe and the United States. | 中東緊張局勢正在加劇，歐洲和美國出現了民粹主義運動。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
因為對敘利亞總統巴沙爾·阿薩德未來在和平程序或政治過渡中所起的作用存在根本性的分歧，在幾次修復關係的努力無果而終後，中東的敘利亞悲劇性衝突仍將繼續下去。 | In the Middle East, the tragic conflict in Syria continues, despite several fruitless attempts at rapprochement, which were marred by the fundamental disagreement about Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s future role in any peace process or political transition. | 翻譯成中文。 |
此外，過去一週，敘利亞政府軍在俄羅斯和伊朗的支援下，已經奪回了幾乎整個阿勒頗——阿勒頗曾是敘利亞最大的城市，現在已經徹底毀滅在戰火之中。 | Meanwhile, over the past week, Syrian government troops, backed by Russia and Iran, have retaken almost all of Aleppo – once Syria’s largest city, now utterly devastated by the war. | 翻譯成中文。 |
世界各國來年的首要任務必須是通過密切的地區和國際合作來實現敘利亞和平。 | The world’s priority for the coming year must be to achieve peace in Syria, which will require close regional and international cooperation. | 翻譯成中文。 |
12月27日，伊朗、俄羅斯和土耳其將在莫斯科舉行三方會議，探討政治解決敘利亞衝突。 | On December 27, Iran, Russia, and Turkey will hold a tripartite meeting in Moscow to discuss a political solution for the Syria conflict. | 翻譯成中文。 |
如果那次會議真的召開，也有可能籠罩在俄羅斯駐土耳其大使被殺的陰影當中。 | That meeting, if it takes place, is likely to be overshadowed by the fallout from the assassination of Russia’s ambassador to Turkey. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But it is nothing if not surprising that these parties, and not the US and the European Union, would be negotiating such an agreement. | 最出人意料的是居然是俄、伊、土三方，而非美國和歐盟，參與談判這樣的協定。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
今年的積極進展出現在3月份，當時歐盟和土耳其就解決難民危機的協議達成。 | One positive development this year came in March, when the EU and Turkey signed an agreement to address the refugee crisis. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Turkey has now taken in some three million Syrian refugees since the beginning of the conflict. | 從這次衝突開始到現在，土耳其已經接收了約300萬敘利亞難民。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Although EU-Turkey relations are currently not at their best, the dialogue between the two sides must continue in 2017, not least because of their common interests, which are based not only on economic interdependence, but also on the refugee crisis and the collective fight against terrorism. | 儘管歐盟土耳其關係現在並不在歷史高點，但雙方必須在2017年繼續對話，尤其因為雙方擁有基於經濟相互依存、難民危機及反恐集體鬥爭等諸多共同利益。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
此外，英國退歐談判將影響明年的歐洲政治。 | European politics next year, meanwhile, will be consumed by the Brexit negotiations. | 翻譯成中文。 |
英國或將於3月啟動《里斯本條約》第五十條，從而觸發退出歐盟的正式程式。 | In March, the United Kingdom will likely invoke Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon, triggering the formal procedure for withdrawal from the EU. | 翻譯成中文。 |
難點在於就確保未來歐盟-英國關係健康發展達成一致。 | The challenge will be to reach an agreement that guarantees the wellbeing of future EU-UK relations. | 翻譯成中文。 |
做到這一點絕非易事。 歐盟談判人員已經制訂了僅有18個月的時間表。 | This will not be easy, and EU negotiators have already set a timeline of only 18 months. | 翻譯成中文。 |
While much remains uncertain, what is clear is that if the UK wants to retain access to the European single market, it will have to accept the EU’s four freedoms, including the free movement of workers. | 雖然不確定因素仍然很多，但有一點十分明確，即如果英國想要保留單一市場準入權，就必須接受包括勞動力自由流動在內的歐盟四項自由政策。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
有幾個歐洲國家將在2017年舉行大選，孤立主義者、反歐洲民粹運動或將在此期間表現強勢。 | In 2017, several European countries will hold general elections, and there is a risk that isolationist, anti-European populist movements will make a strong showing. | 翻譯成中文。 |
For the EU to lose a country as militarily and economically important as the UK is bad enough; but to lose a founding EU member state, such as France, would be tragic. | 對歐盟而言，失去像英國這樣在軍事和經濟上都很重要的國家無疑是一種打擊； 但失去法國這樣的創始成員國或將釀成悲劇性的後果。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
幸運的是，許多歐洲人對歐盟的看法事實上在英國退歐公投後有改善的跡象。 | Fortunately, many Europeans’ views toward the EU actually improved in the aftermath of the Brexit referendum. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But this will not lessen the challenge for EU governments in the year ahead. | 但這並不意味著歐盟政府在今後一年所面臨的挑戰減輕。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
They must unite societies divided by powerful global forces, such as globalization and rapid technological innovation. | 他們必須重新團結被全球化和快速技術創新等強勁全球勢力切割得四分五裂的社會。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
英國退歐公投、而後是唐納德·特朗普在美國總統大選中的獲勝標誌著西方民粹主義勢力抬頭。 | The Brexit referendum, followed by Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, signaled the rise of populism in the West. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But now that Trump is filling his cabinet with oligarchs and former military men, we have reason to doubt that he will keep his promise to govern without the Washington “establishment.” | 但現在，特朗普正在徵召寡頭和前軍人進入其內閣，我們有理由質疑他是否會履行自己擺脫華盛頓“建制派”進行治理的承諾。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Trump’s incoming administration is full of unknowns, but there can be no doubt that his rejection of multilateral institutions will endanger international efforts to cooperate on solutions to the world’s biggest problems. | 特朗普即將執政的新內閣充滿了未知數，但毫無疑問他對多邊機構的抗拒會危及合作解決全球最嚴重問題的工作。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
This holds peril for US-EU relations. | 這必將對美國-歐盟關係構成威脅。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
過去幾年，巴黎氣候協議及伊朗核協議曾為這個遠離多邊主義的世界帶來一線曙光。 | In previous years, the Paris climate agreement and the nuclear agreement with Iran were rays of light in a world closing itself off to multilateralism. | 翻譯成中文。 |
In the coming years, such rays may become scarcer still. | 而在未來幾年，這樣的曙光會變得越來越稀有。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Now more than ever, we need the kind of dialogue that builds strategic trust between great powers. | 現在比以往任何時候都更需要在大國間建立戰略互信的對話。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
而特朗普質疑美國是否將繼續堅持“一箇中國”政策的宣告極有可能嚴重損害世界兩大經濟體之間的關係。 | And yet, Trump’s statements casting doubt on continued US adherence to a “One China” policy vis-à-vis Taiwan could severely damage relations between the world’s two largest economies. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Similarly, notwithstanding the pro-Russian leanings of some among Trump’s team, the US-Russian relationship also lacks strategic trust, owing to Russia’s military intervention in Syria, its invasion of eastern Ukraine, and its alleged interference in the US election. | 同樣，儘管特朗普團隊不乏一定程度的親俄傾向，但因為俄羅斯軍事入侵敘利亞、東烏克蘭以及干涉美國大選的指控，美俄關係同樣缺乏戰略互信。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The coming year will be particularly important for Europe. | 來年對歐洲而言尤其重要。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
植根於對民主、自由和人權的共同尊重，歐盟和美國之間的關係必須保持穩固。 | Relations between the EU and the US must remain strong, rooted in mutual respect for democracy, freedom, and human rights. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在充滿動盪的2016年後，因為國際政治中幾乎鮮有積極訊息，2017年註定充滿挑戰和不確定性。 | After a turbulent 2016, and with little positive news in international politics, 2017 is shaping up to be a year of challenges and uncertainty. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But the biggest uncertainty of all is whether this is simply the end of another year, or the end of a geopolitical epoch. | 但最大的不確定性卻是2016年僅僅是又一年的結束，還是整個地緣政治時代的終結。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
全球經濟緩慢增長又一年 | Another Slow Year for the Global Economy | 翻譯成中文。 |
華盛頓—去年4月，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預測2015年世界經濟將增長3. 5%。 | WASHINGTON, DC – Last April, the International Monetary Fund projected that the world economy would grow by 3.5% in 2015. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在隨後的幾個月中，這一預測被逐步調低，10月份時下降到3. | In the ensuing months, that forecast was steadily whittled down, reaching 3.1% in October. | 翻譯成中文。 |
But the IMF continues to insist – as it has, with almost banal predictability, for the last seven years – that next year will be better. | 1%。 但IMF仍然堅持——在過去七年中它一貫如此，幾乎沒有什麼預見性可言——明年會更好。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但幾乎可以肯定，IMF又錯了。 | But it is almost certainly wrong yet again. | 翻譯成中文。 |
For starters, world trade is growing at an anemic annual rate of 2%, compared to 8% from 2003 to 2007. | 首先，世界貿易年增長率只有區區2%，而2003—2007年間高達8%。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Whereas trade growth during those heady years far exceeded that of world GDP, which averaged 4.5%, lately, trade and GDP growth rates have been about the same. | 這幾年中，貿易增長遠遠高於世界GDP（平均增長率為4. 5%），但最近貿易和GDP增長大致相當。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
即使今年GDP增長超過貿易增長，也可能無法超過2. 7%。 | Even if GDP growth outstrips growth in trade this year, it will likely amount to no more than 2.7%. | 翻譯成中文。 |
問題在於為什麼。 | The question is why. | 翻譯成中文。 |
According to Christina and David Romer of the University of California, Berkeley, the aftershocks of modern financial crises – that is, since World War II – fade after 2-3 years. | 據加州大學伯克利分校的克里斯蒂娜和大衛·羅默（Christina and David Romer），現代金融危機（二戰後）的餘波會持續2—3年時間才會消失。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
哈佛大學經濟學家卡門·萊因哈特（Carmen Reinhart）和肯尼斯·羅格夫（Kenneth Rogoff）說，一國需要五年時間才能從金融危機中走出。 | The Harvard economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff say that it takes five years for a country to dig itself out of a financial crisis. | 翻譯成中文。 |
而事實上，2007—2008年的金融動盪已經基本消失。 | And, indeed, the financial dislocations of 2007-2008 have largely receded. | 翻譯成中文。 |
因此，是什麼導致了經濟復甦滯後？ | So what accounts for the sluggish economic recovery? | 翻譯成中文。 |
一個流行的解釋是一個叫作“長期停滯”的模糊概念——長期受到抑制的商品和服務需求破壞了投資和招聘激勵。 | One popular explanation lies in the fuzzy notion of “secular stagnation”: long-term depressed demand for goods and services is undermining incentives to invest and hire. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但需求只有在人們對未來信心不足時才會持續低迷。 | But demand would remain weak only if people lacked confidence in the future. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The only logical explanation for this enduring lack of confidence, as Northwestern University’s Robert Gordon has painstakingly documented and argued, is slow productivity growth. | 這一信心持續缺失的唯一符合邏輯的解釋，正如西北大學的羅伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）費煞苦心地記錄和論證的，是生產率增長緩慢。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Before the crisis – and especially from 2003 to 2007 – slow productivity growth was being obscured by an illusory sense of prosperity in much of the world. | 危機前，特別是2003—2007年，生產率增長緩慢被一種世界大部分國家都在欣欣向榮的幻覺所矇蔽。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In some countries – notably, the United States, Spain, and Ireland – rising real-estate prices, speculative construction, and financial risk-taking were mutually reinforcing. | 在一些國家——特別是美國、西班牙和愛爾蘭——高升的放假、投機性建設和金融冒險互相強化。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
At the same time, countries were amplifying one another’s growth through trade. | 與此同時，各國通過貿易放大彼此的增長。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這場全球繁榮的核心是中國，這個崛起的巨無霸向全世界輸出廉價出口品，遏制了全球通脹。 | Central to the global boom was China, the rising giant that flooded the world with cheap exports, putting a lid on global inflation. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Equally important, China imported a huge volume of commodities, thereby bolstering many African and Latin American economies, and purchased German cars and machines, enabling Europe’s largest economy to keep its regional supply chains humming. | 同樣重要的是，中國進口了巨量大宗商品，從而提振了許多非洲和拉丁美洲經濟體； 還購買了大量德國汽車和機器，讓歐洲最大經濟體保持其地區供應鏈滿負荷執行。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這一動態在2008年3月左右發生了逆轉。 當時，美國拯救了其第五大投資銀行貝爾斯登，使其免於破產。 | This dynamic reversed around March 2008, when the US rescued its fifth-largest investment bank, Bear Sterns, from collapse. | 翻譯成中文。 |
歐元區銀行業深陷次貸亂局，急缺美元，因此美國和歐洲的大部開始滑向衰退。 | With the eurozone banks also deeply implicated in the subprime mortgage mess and desperately short of US dollars, America and much of Europe began a remorseless slide into recession. | 翻譯成中文。 |
在繁榮年份，世界貿易傳播著財富，而如今，世界貿易傳播著經濟萎靡。 | Whereas in the boom years, world trade had spread the bounty, it was now spreading the malaise. | 翻譯成中文。 |
As each country’s GDP growth slowed, so did its imports, causing its trading partners’ growth to slow as well. | 隨著各國GDP增長的放緩，進口也開始放緩，貿易伙伴的增長也隨之放緩。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
美國經濟從2009年下半年開始走出衰退，這主要是為穩定金融體系而採取的激進貨幣政策和措施的功勞。 | The US economy began to emerge from its recession in the second half of 2009, thanks largely to aggressive monetary policy and steps to stabilize the financial system. | 翻譯成中文。 |
相反，歐洲決策者拒絕採取貨幣刺激而實施了財政緊縮，無視其銀行壓力的加劇。 | Eurozone policymakers, by contrast, rejected monetary stimulus and implemented fiscal austerity measures, while ignoring the deepening distress of their banks. | 翻譯成中文。 |
The eurozone thus pushed the world into a second global recession. | 於是，歐元區將世界拖入了第二場全球衰退。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
Just when that recession seemed to have run its course, emerging economies began to unravel. | 而正當這場衰退眼看就要痊癒時，新興經濟體開始崩潰。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
For years, observers had been touting the governance and growth-enhancing reforms that these countries’ leaders had supposedly introduced. | 多年來，觀察家們一直在鼓吹這些國家領導人如何如何實施治理和刺激增長的改革。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In October 2012, the IMF celebrated emerging economies’ “resilience.” | 2012年10月，IMF大大讚揚了新興經濟體的“恢復力”。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
As if on cue, that facade began to crumble, revealing an inconvenient truth: factors like high commodity prices and massive capital inflows had been concealing serious economic weaknesses, while legitimizing a culture of garish inequality and rampant corruption. | 恰逢此時，門面撐不住了，暴露出一個令人不快的事實：大宗商品價格高企和大規模資本流入等因素掩蓋了嚴重的經濟弱點，也讓劇烈的不平等性和無孔不入的腐敗成為合法的文化。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
These problems are now being compounded by the growth slowdown in China, the fulcrum of global trade. | 如今，這些問題因為全球貿易的支柱——中國增長放緩而雪上加霜。 而最壞的時刻還沒有到來。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
And the worst is yet to come. | 中國巨大的工業過剩產能和房地產過剩還沒有消化； | 翻譯成英文。 |
推動其全球兼併的傲慢必須得到遏制； 其腐敗網路也必須打破。 | China’s huge industrial overcapacity and property glut needs to be wound down; the hubris driving its global acquisitions must be reined in; and its corruption networks have to be dismantled. | 翻譯成中文。 |
簡言之，2015年拖累全球經濟的因素在新的一年裡還會持續——有的甚至還會加劇。 | In short, the factors that dragged down the global economy in 2015 will persist – and in some cases even intensify – in the new year. | 翻譯成中文。 |
新興經濟體將繼續疲軟。 | Emerging economies will remain weak. | 翻譯成中文。 |
暫時擺脫了緊縮的歐元區將受到全球貿易萎靡的束縛。 | The eurozone, having enjoyed a temporary reprieve from austerity, will be constrained by listless global trade. | 翻譯成中文。 |
公司債券利率的提高預示美國增長減速。 | Rising interest rates on corporate bonds portend slower growth in the US. | 翻譯成中文。 |
China’s collapsing asset values could trigger financial turbulence. | 中國資產價值崩盤可能引發金融動盪。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
And policymakers are adrift, with little political leverage to stem these trends. | 而決策者就像是無根之木，沒有政治手段來遏制這些趨勢。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
The IMF should stop forecasting renewed growth and issue a warning that the global economy will remain weak and vulnerable unless world leaders act energetically to spur innovation and growth. | IMF應該停止更新增長預測，而是釋出警告：全球經濟將繼續保持萎靡和脆弱，除非世界領導人著力刺激創新和增長。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
這樣的措施早就應該實行了。 | Such an effort is long overdue. | 翻譯成中文。 |
特朗普的不確定性 | Trumpian Uncertainty | 翻譯成中文。 |
發自紐約——每年一月，我都會嘗試對未來一年作出預測。 | NEW YORK – Every January, I try to craft a forecast for the coming year. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Economic forecasting is notoriously difficult; but, notwithstanding the truth expressed in Harry Truman’s request for a one-armed economist (who wouldn’t be able to say “on the other hand”), my record has been credible. | 經濟預測是件極為困難的事情； 以至於哈里·杜魯門總統（Harry Truman）曾要求手下給他找一位獨臂經濟學家——這樣此人就無法模稜兩可地說“另一方面（on the other hand）”了——但一直以來我的預測還是靠譜的。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In recent years, I correctly foresaw that, in the absence of stronger fiscal stimulus (which was not forthcoming in either Europe or the United States), recovery from the Great Recession of 2008 would be slow. | 這幾年來我正確地預見到，在缺乏更強有力財政刺激政策（在歐洲或美國都一樣）的情況下，2008年大衰退的復甦程序將較為緩慢。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
In making these forecasts, I have relied more on analysis of underlying economic forces than on complex econometric models. | 同時我的預測更多地依賴於對基本經濟力量的分析，而非複雜的經濟計量模型。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
For example, at the beginning of 2016, it seemed clear that the deficiencies of global aggregate demand that have been manifest for the last several years were unlikely to change dramatically. | 例如在2016年初，很顯然在過去幾年中呈現的全球總需求不足將不大可能出現巨大改變。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
因此我認為那些相信會實現強勁復甦的預測者是過於樂觀了，最終實際的經濟發展也與我的預測一致。 | Thus, I thought that forecasters of a stronger recovery were looking at the world through rose-tinted glasses. Economic developments unfolded much as I anticipated. | 翻譯成中文。 |
2016年的政治事件也是如此。 | Not so the political events of 2016. | 翻譯成中文。 |
多年來我一直指出，除非在全球許多國家（尤其是美國）日益嚴重的不平等問題得到解決，否則必將產生某些政治後果。 | I had been writing for years that unless growing inequality – especially in the US, but also in many countries throughout the world – was addressed, there would be political consequences. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但不平等狀況依然持續惡化——令人震驚的資料顯示，美國的預期平均壽命正在下降。 | But inequality continued to worsen – with striking data showing that average life expectancy in the US was on the decline. | 翻譯成中文。 |
These results were foreshadowed by a study last year, by Anne Case and Angus Deaton, which showed that life expectancy was on the decline for large segments of the population – including America’s so-called angry men of the Rust Belt. | 正如安娜·凱斯（Anne Case）和安格斯·迪頓（Angus Deaton）的一項研究表明：美國大部分人口的預期壽命都在下降，包括所謂北部老工業區的憤怒居民們。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
而由於90％的底層人士收入增長已經停滯了將近1/3個世紀（且其中很大比例都出現了下滑），醫療資料清晰明白地證實了美國大部分地區處境不妙。 | But, with the incomes of the bottom 90% having stagnated for close to a third of a century (and declining for a significant proportion), the health data simply confirmed that things were not going well for very large swaths of the country. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但美國可能處於這種趨勢的極端，其他地方的情況會好一點。 | And while America might be at the extreme of this trend, things were little better elsewhere. | 翻譯成中文。 |
但如果這似乎必然預示著某些政治後果，那麼其形式和時間就不那麼明顯了。 | But, if it seemed clear that there would be political consequences, their form and timing were far less obvious. | 翻譯成中文。 |
為什麼美國的下行會在經濟恢復期出現，而不是更為提前？ | Why did the backlash in the US come just when the economy seemed to be on the mend, rather than earlier? | 翻譯成中文。 |
And why did it manifest itself in a lurch to the right? | 為何這會表現為政治右傾？ | 翻譯成英文。 |
畢竟正是共和黨人拒絕援助那些因他們全力推動全球化而失業的人們，是共和黨人否決在26個州擴大醫療補助，從而拒絕為底層的人提供醫療保險。 | After all, it was the Republicans who had blocked assistance to those losing their jobs as a result of the globalization they pushed assiduously. It was the Republicans who, in 26 states, refused to allow the expansion of Medicaid, thereby denying health insurance to those at the bottom. | 翻譯成中文。 |
為什麼一個依靠佔他人便宜來謀生，公開承認並未支付合理份額稅收，並以避稅為榮的人會成為大選最終贏家？ | And why was the victor somebody who made his living from taking advantage of others, openly admitted not paying his fair share of taxes, and made tax avoidance a point of pride? | 翻譯成中文。 |
Donald Trump grasped the spirit of the time: things weren’t going well, and many voters wanted change. | 唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）抓住了時代精神：境況不佳，許多選民都想來點改變。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
但如今他們會意識到真相：再也沒有什麼常態可言，但也不會存在更多的不確定性。 | Now they will get it: there will be no business as usual. But seldom has there been more uncertainty. | 翻譯成中文。 |
Which policies Trump will pursue remains unknown, to say nothing of which will succeed or what the consequences will be. | 特朗普將實施何種政策仍然是未知之數，更遑論哪些政策將會成功或者後果將是什麼了。 | 翻譯成英文。 |
特朗普似乎拼命想發起一場貿易戰。 | Trump seems hell-bent on having a trade war. | 翻譯成中文。 |
那麼中國和墨西哥將如何應對？ | But how will China and Mexico respond? | 翻譯成中文。 |