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But roughly twice as many people are currently infected with HIV.
但目前被艾滋病毒感染的人數兩倍於此。
翻譯成英文。
Over the last decade, Mylan has invested more than $250 million in expanding production capacity, and we now produce four billion tablets and capsules each year.
在過去十年中,邁蘭公司投入了2. 5億多美元用於擴大產能,目前我們每年都要生產四十億片藥片和膠囊。
翻譯成英文。
但如果要為另外2,100萬仍然得不到治療的人提供藥物,還需要更多投資。
But further investments are needed if we are to provide access to the other 21 million people still not on treatment.
翻譯成中文。
第三項繼續做出的承諾是增加研究支援和加快高效治療實現的新創新的開發。
A third urgently needed commitment is to increase support for research that accelerates the development of new innovations in effective and efficient treatment delivery.
翻譯成中文。
For example, Mylan provides study medications to research trials, like the MaxART trial in Swaziland, which demonstrated that providing treatment to all HIV-positive people is the best way to slow the disease’s spread.
比如,邁蘭公司為研究實驗提供研究藥品,比如史瓦濟蘭的MaxART試驗,該試驗發現,向所有艾滋病毒陽性人員提供治療是遏制艾滋病蔓延的最佳辦法。
翻譯成英文。
We also supported the Kirby Institute’s ENCORE1 trial, to develop a reduced-dose version of the most commonly used HIV treatment regimen.
我們還支援科爾比研究所(Kirby Institute)的ENCORE1測試,該測試要開發最常用艾滋病療法的減劑量版。
翻譯成英文。
目前,我們還與美國國際開發署進行合作,這是一個叫作“優化”(OPTIMIZE)的合作專案的一部分,其目的是加快新療法的普及。
And we are currently working with the US Agency for International Development as part of a partnership called OPTIMIZE, which aims to accelerate access to new therapies.
翻譯成中文。
我們支援此類試驗不是因為我們向獲得可以待價而沽的智慧財產權。
We do not support trials like these because we hope to gain any marketable intellectual property – we won’t.
翻譯成中文。
Rather, we support them because it is the right way to advance science and improve treatment.
相反,我們支援這些試驗是因為這是推動科學、改進療法的正確方法。
翻譯成英文。
最後,艾滋病戰爭的真正收益需要製藥公司顧及它們所服務的發展中國的醫療體系和分銷網路的極限。
Finally, real gains in the fight against HIV/AIDS will require drug makers to account for the limitations of health-care systems and distribution networks in the developing countries they serve.
翻譯成中文。
Antiretroviral therapies for children are a good example of these challenges.
兒童抗逆轉錄治療是這類挑戰的一個顯例。
翻譯成英文。
西方所生產的年輕人用藥通常為液態,需要冷藏。
Drugs for young people produced in the West are often liquids that require refrigeration.
翻譯成中文。
But developing countries often have limited cold-storage capacities or an inability to transport liquid in bulk.
但發展中國家常常冷藏能力不足,也不具備大量運輸液體的能力。
翻譯成英文。
因此,邁蘭公司開發了一種熱穩定的矯味分散片,可以方便地摻在食品中。
That’s why Mylan has developed heat-stable, taste-masked, dispersible tablets that can easily be incorporated into food.
翻譯成中文。
Our scientists are now working on the next-generation formula, which comes in the equivalent of a sugar packet that even newborns can take.
我們的科學家正在開發新一代配方,將採用糖包,即使是新生兒也可以服用。
翻譯成英文。
More innovations like these will be needed to solve the country-specific issues that patients face.
我們需要更多類似的創新來解決具體國家患者所面臨的問題。
翻譯成英文。
The global health community has made remarkable progress in turning the tide on HIV/AIDS, introducing new products and advocating for earlier treatment.
全球醫療界在扭轉艾滋病趨勢方面做出了重大進步,引入了新產品,推動了提早治療。
翻譯成英文。
But when I think back to the woman I met in Tanzania, I am reminded of how much work remains to be done.
但每當我回想起在坦尚尼亞遇到的那位婦女,我就會想起還有很多工作等著我們完成。
翻譯成英文。
Makers of generic medicines have an important role to play in this fight, and we will not stop working until treatment is available to every patient in the world who needs it.
通用藥製造商在這場戰爭中扮演著重要角色,我們會一直致力於此,直到全世界所有需要的患者都能得到治療。
翻譯成英文。
The Risk of a New Economic Non-Order
新經濟無序的風險
翻譯成英文。
LONDON – Next month, when finance ministers and central bank governors from more than 180 countries gather in Washington, DC, for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, they will confront a global economic order under increasing strain.
倫敦—下個月,180多個國家的財政部長和央行官員將齊聚華盛頓,參加國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行峰會。 他們面臨著一個日益吃緊的全球經濟秩序。
翻譯成英文。
這一秩序沒能帶來它有能力實現的包容經濟繁榮,正在受到越來越多的質疑和挑戰。
Having failed to deliver the inclusive economic prosperity of which it is capable, that order is subject to growing doubts – and mounting challenges.
翻譯成中文。
如果不予以糾正的話,現有秩序導致世界經濟失序的風險還會繼續增加。
Barring a course correction, the risks that today’s order will yield to a world economic non-order will only intensify.
翻譯成中文。
當前的國際經濟秩序由美國及其盟友在二戰後引領,其基礎是包括IMF和世界銀行在內的多邊機構。
The current international economic order, spearheaded by the United States and its allies in the wake of World War II, is underpinned by multilateral institutions, including the IMF and the World Bank.
翻譯成中文。
These institutions were designed to crystallize member countries’ obligations, and they embodied a set of best economic-policy practices that evolved into what became known as the “Washington Consensus.”
這些機構設立的初衷是為了明確成員國的義務,它們也包含了一系列最佳經濟政策實踐,即日後著名的“華盛頓共識”。
翻譯成英文。
That consensus was rooted in an economic paradigm that aimed to promote win-win interactions among countries, emphasizing trade liberalization, relatively unrestricted cross-border capital flows, free-market pricing, and domestic deregulation.
這一共識植根於一個旨在促進各國間雙贏互動的經濟正規化,它強調貿易自由化、相對不受限制的跨境資本流、自由市場定價以及國內去監管化。
翻譯成英文。
所有這些都與鐵幕之後的國家和中國在戰後時期上半段的做法截然不同。
All of this stood in stark contrast to what developed behind the Iron Curtain and in China over the first half of the postwar period.
翻譯成中文。
幾十年來,西方領導的國際秩序運轉良好,幫助實現了繁榮和相對金融穩定。
For several decades, the Western-led international order functioned well, helping to deliver prosperity and relative financial stability.
翻譯成中文。
Then it was shaken by a series of financial shocks that culminated in the 2008 global financial crisis, which triggered cascading economic failures that pushed the world to the edge of a devastating multi-year depression.
接著,它遭遇了一系列金融衝擊,2008年全球金融危機為其高潮,它觸發了一連串經濟失靈,讓世界幾乎跌入災難性的多年蕭條。
翻譯成英文。
這是自20世紀30年代大蕭條以來最嚴重的經濟倒退。
It was the most severe economic breakdown since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
翻譯成中文。
But the crisis did not appear out of nowhere to challenge a healthy economic order.
但這場危機並不是無中生有冒出來挑戰健康的經濟秩序的。
翻譯成英文。
On the contrary, the evolution of the global order had long been outpaced by structural economic changes on the ground, with multilateral governance institutions taking too long to recognize fully the significance of financial-sector developments and their impact on the real economy, or to make adequate room for emerging economies.
相反,全球秩序的演化一直落後於結構性經濟變化,多邊治理機構充分認識金融業的發展及其對實體經濟的影響消耗了太長時間,為新興經濟體創造足夠空間的動作也過於緩慢。
翻譯成英文。
比如,包括投票權在內的治理結構更適合過去的經濟現實,但已與今天和未來的經濟現實不甚相容。
For example, governance structures, including voting power, correspond better to the economic realities of yesterday than to those of today and tomorrow.
翻譯成中文。
國籍,而不是資質,仍然是任命這些機構領導者的主要原則,最高職位被歐洲和美國公民壟斷。
And nationality, rather than merit, still is the dominant guide for the appointment of these institutions’ leaders, with top positions still reserved for European and US citizens.
翻譯成中文。
頑固地不肯充改革多邊治理所造成的動搖性後果,因為中國難以調和其國內重點和身為世界第二大經濟體的全球經濟責任而加劇。
The destabilizing consequences of this obstinate failure to reform sufficiently multilateral governance have been compounded by China’s own struggle to reconcile its domestic priorities with its global economic responsibilities as the world’s second-largest economy.
翻譯成中文。
其他一些國家,特別是經濟發達國家,也沒能轉變國內政策以顧及全球化、自由化和去監管化所導致的經濟關係變化。
Several other countries, particularly among the advanced economies, have also failed to transform their domestic policies to account for changes to economic relationships resulting from globalization, liberalization, and deregulation.
翻譯成中文。
拜所有這些因素所賜,贏家和輸家的平衡變得更加極端和難以管理,不僅經濟上是如此,政治和社會上也是如此。
As a result of all of this, the balance of winners and losers has become increasingly extreme and more difficult to manage, not just economically, but also politically and socially.
翻譯成中文。
With too many people feeling marginalized, forgotten, and dispossessed – and angry at the leaders and institutions that have allowed this to happen – domestic policy pressure has intensified, causing countries to turn inward.
太多的人感到被邊緣化,被遺忘,被剝奪——對放任這些情況發生的領導人和機構充滿了憤怒——國內政策壓力也隨之日益加劇,導致各國不得不向內轉。
翻譯成英文。
This tendency is reflected in recent challenges to several features of the economic order, such as the North American Free-Trade Agreement, as well as America’s withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the United Kingdom’s renunciation of European Union membership.
這一趨勢體現為最近經濟秩序的某些標誌(如北美自由貿易協定)受到挑戰,以及美國從跨太平洋合作伙伴關係中退出、英國放棄歐盟成員國資格等。
翻譯成英文。
All are casting a shadow on the future of the global economic system.
所有這些都給全球經濟體系的未來蒙上了一層陰影。
翻譯成英文。
America’s inward turn, already underway for several years, has been particularly consequential, because it leaves the world order without a main conductor.
美國的向內轉已經進行了多年,其影響尤其重大,因為這導致世界秩序失去了舵手。
翻譯成英文。
其他國家或國家集團都無法接過美國的接力棒,政治學家伊恩·布雷默(Ian Bremmer)所謂的“G-0時代”的出現已是板上釘釘。
With no other country or group of countries anywhere close to being in a position to carry the baton, the emergence of what the political scientist Ian Bremmer has called a “G-Zero era” becomes a lot more probable.
翻譯成中文。
面對全球體系核心的衰落,中國的應對之道是加快構建小網路的步伐,包括在傳統的西方主導的權力結構之外另起爐灶。
China is responding to the global system’s weakening core by accelerating its efforts to build small networks, including around the traditional Western-dominated power structures.
翻譯成中文。
其中包括建立亞洲基礎設施投資銀行、各種雙邊支付協定的湧現,以及推出“一帶一路計劃”建設連線中國和西亞、歐洲和非洲的基礎設施。
This has included the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the proliferation of bilateral payments agreements, and the pursuit of the “Belt and Road Initiative” to build infrastructure linking China with western Asia, Europe, and Africa.
翻譯成中文。
These dynamics are stoking trade tensions and raising the risk of economic fragmentation.
這些動態助長著貿易緊張,也提高了經濟分裂的風險。
翻譯成英文。
If this trend continues, the global economic and financial configuration will become increasingly unstable, amplifying geopolitical and security threats at a time when better cross-border coordination is vital to address threats from non-state actors and disruptive regimes, such as North Korea.
如果這一趨勢繼續下去,全球經濟和金融格局將越來越不穩定,加劇地緣和安全威脅,而與此同時,加強跨境合作才是解決來自非國家行動方和破壞性政權(如朝鮮)的威脅的關鍵。
翻譯成英文。
Over time, the risks associated with this shift toward a global economic non-order could have severe adverse effects on geopolitics and national security.
假以時日,伴隨向全球經濟無序的轉變所產生的風險可能給地緣政治和國家安全造成嚴重的消極影響。
翻譯成英文。
None of this is new.
所有這些都不是新鮮事。
翻譯成英文。
Yet, year after year, top government officials at the IMF/World Bank annual meetings fail to address it.
但是,年復一年,參加IMF/世界銀行年會的政府高官們都無法解決它們。
翻譯成英文。
This year is likely to be no different.
今年預計也不會有什麼不同。
翻譯成英文。
Instead of discussing concrete steps to slow and reverse the march toward a global economic non-order, officials will probably welcome the cyclical uptick in global growth and urge member countries to do more to remove structural impediments to faster, more durable, and more inclusive growth.
官員們不會討論延緩和扭轉通往全球經濟無序的程序,更有可能因為全球增長的週期性好轉而歡欣鼓舞,敦促成員國加大力度克服結構性障礙,構建更快、更持久、更包容的增長。
翻譯成英文。
While understandable, that isn’t good enough.
這一點可以理解,但不夠好。
翻譯成英文。
即將到來的會議是一次關鍵的機會,開啟關於如何扭轉在全球經濟中勢頭漸猛的雙輸動態的嚴肅討論。
The upcoming meetings offer a critical opportunity to start a serious discussion of how to arrest the lose-lose dynamics that have been gaining traction in the global economy.
翻譯成中文。
改革種子撒播的越晚,它們深根發芽的可能性就越小,而出現雙輸的世界經濟經濟無序局面的概率就越大。
The longer it takes for the seeds of reform to be sown, the less likely they will be to take root – and the higher the probability that a lose-lose world economic non-order will emerge.
翻譯成中文。
The World Economy in 2018
2018年的世界經濟
翻譯成英文。
發自斯坦福——所有主要的巨集觀經濟指標——增長,失業率和通脹率——都表明2017年將是美國經濟十年來最好的一年。
STANFORD – All major macroeconomic indicators – growth, unemployment, and inflation – suggest that 2017 will be the American economy’s best year in a decade.
翻譯成中文。
全球經濟也正享受著超出所有人預期的,廣泛而同步的增長。
And the global economy is enjoying broad, synchronized growth beyond what anyone expected.
翻譯成中文。
The question now is whether this strong performance will continue in 2018.
而如今的問題這在於:這個強勁表現能否在2018年延續下去。
翻譯成英文。
答案無疑將取決於美國和全球各國的貨幣,財政,貿易等相關政策。
The answer, of course, will depend on monetary, fiscal, trade, and related policies in the United States and around the world.
翻譯成中文。
但2018年會出現哪些政策議案是很難預測的。
And yet it is hard to predict what policy proposals will emerge in 2018.
翻譯成中文。
美法英三國都有了新的國家元首,德國領導人在9月份大選後尚未組成執政聯盟; 美聯儲的新主席人選還有待確認。
There are relatively new heads of state in the US, France, and the United Kingdom; German leaders still have not formed a governing coalition since the general election in September; and the US Federal Reserve has a new chair awaiting confirmation.
翻譯成中文。
Moreover, major changes in important developing economies such as Argentina, Saudi Arabia, and Brazil have made the future outlook even murkier.
同時阿根廷,沙特,巴西等重要發展中經濟體國內局勢的重大變化也使得前景更加陰暗難猜。
翻譯成英文。
不過我們依然會滿懷希望。
Still, we should hope for the best.
翻譯成中文。
首先,如國際貨幣基金組織10月預測的那樣,我們可以指望略低於4%的全球經濟同步增長率能在2018年得以延續。
First and foremost, we should hope that synchronized global growth at a rate of just under 4% will continue in 2018, as the International Monetary Fund projected in October.
翻譯成中文。
經濟增長不僅提高了收入,還能使銀行不良貸款,預算赤字等問題更加容易應對。
Growth not only raises incomes, but also makes vexing problems such as bad bank loans and budget deficits more manageable.
翻譯成中文。
正如美國前總統約翰·F·肯尼迪(John F. Kennedy)在1963年10月一次提議降低企業和個人稅率的演講中所說的那樣:“潮水一漲,萬帆皆高”。
As former US President John F. Kennedy famously said in an October 1963 speech in which he promoted his proposed corporate and personal tax reductions, “a rising tide lifts all boats.”
翻譯成中文。
在我看來,全球經濟復甦將持續,但增速略低,大概在3. 5%左右。
For my part, I predict that the global recovery will continue, but at a slightly slower growth rate of around 3.5%.
翻譯成中文。
The two most obvious risks to keep an eye on will be Europe, where a cyclical upturn could stall, and the oil-rich Middle East, where tensions could flare up once again.
最需要注意的兩個最明顯風險一個是週期性好轉局面可能出現停滯的歐洲,以及緊張局勢可能再次爆發中東產油區。
翻譯成英文。
Second, let us hope that the Fed, guided by the steady hand of its new chair, Jerome “Jay” Powell, will continue or even accelerate its monetary-policy normalization, both by raising its benchmark federal funds rate, and by shrinking its engorged balance sheet.
其次,讓我們希望美聯儲能在其新主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)的穩定執掌下繼續或甚至加快其貨幣政策正常化程序,一方面提高基準聯邦基金利率,另一方面收縮其過度膨脹的資產負債表。
翻譯成英文。
我們也希望經濟條件能允許其他主要央行(尤其是歐洲央行)效仿這些舉動。
And we should hope that economic conditions allow the other major central banks, especially the European Central Bank, to follow suit.
翻譯成中文。
在這方面,我預計各主要央行將會繼續逐步實現貨幣政策正常化。
On this front, I predict that the major central banks will continue to normalize monetary policies more gradually than is necessary.
翻譯成中文。
這裡最大的風險在於市場可能試圖考驗一下新領導人治下的美聯儲,比如如果通脹上漲速度可能超出預期。
The biggest risk here is that markets may try to test the Fed under its new leadership, for example, if inflation rises faster than anticipated.
翻譯成中文。
第三,我們希望共和黨的一攬子稅收方案能夠在未來十年內兌現其提升投資,產出,生產力和工資的承諾。
Third, let us hope that the Republican tax package will, if enacted, deliver on its promise of increased investment, output, productivity, and wages over the coming decade.
翻譯成中文。
Here, I predict that the legislation will pass, and that investment in the US over the next few years will be relatively higher than if no action had been taken.
在此我預測立法會通過,而未來幾年的對美投資會比不做出任何行動要高。
翻譯成英文。
To be sure, whether investment will rise from its currently subdued level will depend on many other factors than the corporate-tax rate.
可以肯定的是,投資能否擺脫當前的低迷水平還得取決於企業稅率以外的其他因素。
翻譯成英文。
But the tax package can still be expected to boost output, productivity, and wages.
但稅收方案仍然可以提高產出,生產率和工資。
翻譯成英文。
The question is not if, but when.
問題不在於能否,而是何時。
翻譯成英文。
If the full effects of the legislation are not felt before the 2018 or 2020 elections, that lag could prove politically consequential.
如果立法效應無法在2018年或2020年選舉之前全部釋放,那麼這種滯後可能會產生一定的政治後果。
翻譯成英文。
The biggest danger is that its benefits will be delayed, and that its key provisions will be reversed whenever the Democrats are back in power.
最大的危險在於它的正面效應將會被延後,而其主要條款將會被重奪政權的民主黨人所逆轉。
翻譯成英文。
Fourth, let us hope that governments everywhere begin to address the looming crisis in public-pension and health-care costs, which have been rising for decades.
第四,讓我們希望各地的政府都開始著手解決一項迫在眉睫的危機:幾十年來一直在上升的公共養老金和醫療保健成本。
翻譯成英文。
As social programs become costlier, they crowd out government expenditures on necessities such as defense, while generating ever more pressure to impose higher growth-suppressing taxes.
隨著社會專案的成本日益上漲,國防等必需品的政府支出遭到了擠佔,也令到壓抑增長的加稅壓力不斷增大。
翻譯成英文。
Europe, in particular, must not let its cyclical rebound lull it into complacency.
歐洲尤其避免在週期性反彈下保持清醒。
翻譯成英文。
許多歐盟成員國仍需縮減政府債務,歐元區則得著手解決“殭屍銀行”危機。
Many European Union member states still need to reduce their government debt, and the eurozone needs to resolve its “zombie bank” crisis.
翻譯成中文。
Beyond that, structural labor-market reforms of the kind French President Emmanuel Macron is pursuing would be most welcome.
除此之外,法國總統馬克龍所追求的結構性勞動力市場改革也是最為急需的。
翻譯成英文。
Unfortunately, I’m afraid that progress on structural reforms will be sporadic, at best.
不幸的是我擔心結構改革的進展恐怕會是斷斷續續的。
翻譯成英文。
危險在於緩慢增長無法帶來足夠的工資收入增長和就業增量以化解許多國家的高青年失業率定時炸彈。
The danger is that slow growth will not lead to sufficient wage gains and job creation to defuse the ticking time bomb of high youth unemployment in many countries.
翻譯成中文。
Another risk is that reform attempts could provoke a political backlash that would be harmful to long-term investment.
另一項風險在於改革嘗試可能會引發一場不利於長期性投資的政治反彈。
翻譯成英文。
Fifth, let us hope that the eurozone can avoid a currency crisis.
第五,希望歐元區能避免貨幣危機。
翻譯成英文。
This will depend largely on whether German Chancellor Angela Merkel can form a coalition government and restore political stability to Europe’s largest economy.
這在很大程度上取決於德國總理默克爾能否組建聯合政府,讓德國這個歐洲最大經濟體恢復政治穩定。
翻譯成英文。
Sixth, we should hope that the EU and the UK can agree on a reasonable Brexit deal that will preserve fairly strong trade relations.
第六,我們應寄望歐盟和英國能達成一個合理的脫歐協議以維護雙方之間的密切貿易關係。
翻譯成英文。
The main risk here is that localized declines in trade could spill over and cause broader harm.
這裡的主要風險是貿易的區域性下降可能會蔓延開來並造成更廣泛的傷害。
翻譯成英文。
而在歐洲之外,我們希望美國,加拿大和墨西哥三國之間就《北美自由貿易協定》進行的談判將產生一個仍然有利於北美大陸貿易的安排。
And, beyond Europe, let us hope that negotiations between the US, Canada, and Mexico over the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) will result in an arrangement that still facilitates continental trade.
翻譯成中文。
對於貿易來說,最大的風險在於特朗普政府會因為急於扶助美國製造業勞動者而發起一場雙輸的貿易爭端。
For trade generally, the biggest risk is that the Trump administration could start a lose-lose trade dispute, owing to its understandable eagerness to help American manufacturing workers.
翻譯成中文。
Seventh, let us hope that new policies targeting information and communication technology (ICT) strike the right balance among all stakeholders’ competing and legitimate concerns.
第七,讓我們希望以資訊和通訊技術為目標的新政策能夠在所有利益相關者的競爭和合理關切之間取得適當的平衡。
翻譯成英文。
On one hand, there is reason to worry about certain Internet companies’ concentration of market power, particularly in online content and distribution, and about the effects of new technologies on personal privacy, law enforcement, and national security.
一方面,有理由擔心某些網際網路公司在某些市場——特別是線上內容和分發方面——攫取過大權力,以及新技術對個人隱私,執法和國家安全的影響。
翻譯成英文。
On the other hand, new technological advances could deliver immense economic gains.
另一方面,新技術進步的巨大經濟收益也不容忽視。
翻譯成英文。
It is easy to envision a scenario of too much regulation, or of too little.
監管過多或過少的狀況可能出現。
翻譯成英文。
It is also easy to envision a large-scale public backlash against the major technology companies, particularly if poor self-policing or a refusal to cooperate with law enforcement leads to some horrible event.
特別是在因自我管理不善或拒絕配合執法而導致一些可怕事件後,公眾針對大型科技公司實施大規模反彈也是有可能的。
翻譯成英文。
在此我預測達致適當的政策平衡將需要幾年的時間。
Here, I predict that achieving an appropriate policy balance will take years.
翻譯成中文。
如果未來的事件引發情緒上的共鳴,公眾的情緒就會劇烈波動。
If some future event strikes an emotional chord, the public’s mood could swing dramatically.
翻譯成中文。