jslin09/news_commentary_tw · Datasets at Hugging Face

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出於一個重要的立法原因，未來預期預算將轉為盈餘。	There is an important legislative reason why the projected budget will return to surplus in the future.	翻譯成中文。
共和黨在參議院僅佔微弱多數，而參議院的冗長演說規則要求大部分立法需要五分之三多數才能通過，因此，民主黨有能力阻撓共和黨的稅收日程。	The Republicans have only a very small majority in the Senate, where the filibuster rule requires a three-fifths majority to pass most legislation, giving the Democrats the ability to block the Republican tax agenda.	翻譯成中文。
但一個例外可以讓稅收和支出法案在簡單多數情況下獲得通過，即預算能夠在十年後轉為盈餘。	But an exception allows tax and spending bills to be passed with a simple majority if the resulting budget returns to surplus after ten years.	翻譯成中文。
共和黨可以據此設計稅收和支出規則，逐步提高未來稅收收入增量，實現必要的長期盈餘。	By designing the tax and spending rules accordingly and phasing in future revenue increases, the Republicans can achieve the needed long-term surpluses.	翻譯成中文。
因此，我對於有利於增加資本形成和增長的稅收改革能夠通過持樂觀態度，對於由此導致的一切預算赤字的增加都只是暫時現象也持樂觀態度。	As a result, I am optimistic that a tax reform serving to increase capital formation and growth will be enacted, and that any resulting increase in the budget deficit will be only temporary.	翻譯成中文。
破產的美國製度	America’s Broken System	翻譯成中文。
BERKELEY – The tax bill that US Republicans have doggedly pushed through Congress is not as big a deal as many are portraying it to be.	伯克利—美國共和黨固執地要在國會通過的稅收法案的意義並不像很多人所描繪的那麼大。	翻譯成英文。
這是個中等規模的訊息。	It is medium-size news.	翻譯成中文。
大訊息——分量重得多、情況也惡劣得多的訊息——在別的地方。	The big news – the much more weighty and ominous news – lies elsewhere.	翻譯成中文。
當然，中等規模也不可等閒視之。	Of course, medium-size is not nothing.	翻譯成中文。
If the tax bill does clear its final hurdle – a conference committee must reconcile the Senate-approved bill with that of the House of Representatives – and become law, it will complicate the tax system considerably, as it opens many loopholes.	如果稅收法案真的清除了最後的障礙——必須成立一個委員會來協調參議院通過的法案和眾議院通過的法案——併成為法律，它讓稅收制度大大複雜化，因為它開啟了大量漏洞。	翻譯成英文。
它不會對經濟增長有任何影響——不管是積極影響還是消極影響——但會給政府融資帶來影響，造成的稅收收入降幅大約相當於國民收入的1%。	It won’t have any impact on economic growth – positive or negative – but it would have an impact on the government’s finances, causing revenues to decline by the equivalent of about 1% of national income.	翻譯成中文。
The missing resources would most likely be transferred to the top 1% of earners, raising their share of total income from 22% to 23%.	損失的資源最有可能會轉移給最頂層1%的收入群體，他們佔總收入的比重將從22%提高到23%。最頂層0.	翻譯成英文。
The top 0.01% would probably gain the most, with their share of income rising from 5.1% to 5.5%.	01%的群體或許是收益最大的群體，他們佔總收入的比重將從5. 1%提高到5.	翻譯成英文。
5%。從這個角度講，這項稅收計劃將給日益堅固的美國財法治國堡壘在新增一塊磚塊——不是一塊大磚，而是一塊中等規模的磚塊。	In this sense, the tax plan would be another brick – not a huge brick, but a medium-size brick – in the increasingly impregnable fortress of American plutocracy.	翻譯成中文。
但法案和可能根本無法成為法律。	But the bill may well not become law at all.	翻譯成中文。
Consider the Republicans’ efforts earlier this year to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) – an effort that, it now seems clear, was pure Dingbat Kabuki.	想一想今年早些時候共和黨取消和取代平價醫療法（“奧巴馬醫保”）的努力——現在看來，這些努力和街頭賣藝差不多。	翻譯成英文。
The Republicans didn’t actually want to take responsibility for changing the health-care financing system, much less strip their own constituents of health care.	共和黨並不真的想承擔改變醫藥費體系的責任，更不想剝奪自己的支持者的醫保。	翻譯成英文。
但共和黨的宣傳部門竭盡全力要讓它的票倉相信奧巴馬醫保是對美國的赤裸裸的緊迫威脅，美國領導人必須有所行動，好像他們正在認真地採取措施兌現取消和取代承諾一樣。	But the party’s propaganda arm had worked so hard to convince its base that Obamacare represented a clear and present danger to the country that its leaders had to act as if they were making a serious effort to fulfill their promise to repeal and replace it.	翻譯成中文。
因此，眾議院的共和黨多數給該法案投了贊成票，他們有信心法案會被有100個席位、但其中52個共和黨中只有不到40人真的希望該法案通過的參議院會將它“槍斃”。	So a majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives voted for the bill, expecting, with reasonable confidence, that it would be blocked in the 100-member Senate, where fewer than 40 of the 52 Republicans actually wanted it to pass.	翻譯成中文。
Had any of the three Republican senators who voted against the bill – John McCain of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine, or Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – made a different choice, there were probably about five more who would have stepped in to nix it.	如果反對該法案的三位共和黨參議員——亞利桑那州的約翰·麥凱恩（John McCain）、緬因州的蘇珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）和阿拉斯加州的麗莎·莫爾科夫斯基（Lisa Murkowski）——中的任何一位做出不同的選擇，都可能會有五位其他參議員站出來反對。	翻譯成英文。
稅收法案可能也會是如此。	The same thing may be happening with the tax reform.	翻譯成中文。
It depends on whether at least three of the ten Republican senators who have raised objections are serious, or are playing a different game of Dingbat Kabuki: seeking to trick their constituents into thinking that they went the extra mile to try to help them, and are not puppets of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.	這取決於在十名舉手反對的共和黨參議員中，是否至少有三人是認真的，還是在玩不同的街頭賣藝遊戲：試圖欺騙選民認為他們不辭萬難要幫助他們，而不是參議院多數黨領袖米奇·麥康奈爾（Mitch McConnell）的傀儡。	翻譯成英文。
But, regardless of whether the tax bill survives the reconciliation process and becomes law, the big news won’t change: the Anglo-Saxon model of representative government is in serious trouble.	但不論稅收法案是否能通過協調過程併成為法律，大訊息不會改變：盎格魯-薩克遜式代議制民主陷入了嚴重的麻煩。	翻譯成英文。
並且看不到解決辦法。	And there is no solution in sight.	翻譯成中文。
For some 400 years, the Anglo-Saxon governance model – exemplified by the republican semi-principality of the Netherlands, the constitutional monarchy of the United Kingdom, and the constitutional republic of the United States of America – was widely regarded as having hit the sweet spot of liberty, security, and prosperity.	400年來，盎格魯-薩克遜治理模式——以半封建制的荷蘭、君主立憲制的英國和立憲民主制的美國為代表——被廣泛認為集合了自由、安全和繁榮的優點。	翻譯成英文。
The greater the divergence from that model, historical experience seemed to confirm, the higher the likelihood of repression, insecurity, and poverty.	歷史經驗似乎證明，越是偏離這一模式，發生鎮壓、不安全和貧困的可能性越大。	翻譯成英文。
因此各國時時被強烈建議模仿這些制度。	So countries were frequently and strongly advised to emulate those institutions.	翻譯成中文。
Nobody would dare offer that same advice today.	今天，沒人再敢提出這樣的建議了。	翻譯成英文。
The UK, having been thrown into devastating austerity by Conservative and Liberal leaders after the global economic crisis, is now being led by the Conservatives toward a messy and damaging Brexit.	全球經濟危機發生後，保守派和自由派領導人將英國扔進了災難性的緊縮之中，如今，在保守黨的領導下，英國正在邁向混亂和破壞性的退歐。	翻譯成英文。
And, in the US, the election of President Donald Trump heralded the age of “alternative facts” and “governance by tweet,” overseen by an erratic and ignorant leader who is clearly in over his head.	而在美國，總統特朗普的當選預示著“另類事實”和“推特治國”時代的到來，領導這個國家的將是一個反覆而無知的、顯然是心智失常的領導人。	翻譯成英文。
When Trump was first elected, some argued that it did not have to be a disaster.	特朗普剛剛當選時，一些人認為這未必是一場災難。	翻譯成英文。
畢竟，樂觀派指出，里根總統更多地是“國家元首”而不是“首席執政”，小布什也是如此。	After all, the optimists pointed out, President Ronald Reagan had been more a “chief of state” than a “chief executive,” as had George W. Bush.	翻譯成中文。
As divisive as Chief of State Trump would be, according to this view, he wouldn’t derail policy, because electing a Republican president is more like electing the Republican Party establishment.	根據這一觀點，作為果斷的國家元首的特朗普不會讓政策脫軌，因為選擇一位共和黨政府更像是選擇了共和黨建制派。	翻譯成英文。
這批人深不可測，且能力很強，儘管最近幾年有所削弱。	And that bench was very deep and very competent, despite its weakening in recent years.	翻譯成中文。
樂觀派錯了。	The optimists were wrong.	翻譯成中文。
共和黨控制國會兩院和白宮已近一年，但在四大政策目標上全面受挫：取消和取代奧巴馬醫保、基礎設施開發、貿易政策改革，以及稅收改革。	After nearly a year in control of both houses of Congress and the White House, the Republicans haven’t achieved any of their four policy goals: repeal and replacement of Obamacare, infrastructure development, trade-policy reform, or even tax reform.	翻譯成中文。
這表明政治和治理制度已經破產，並且美國想不到辦法來修補。	This points to a broken system of politics and governance, one that Americans seem to have no idea how to fix.	翻譯成中文。
美國仍然是全世界最強大的超級大國。	The US remains the world’s preeminent superpower.	翻譯成中文。
但對於它能否保持這一地位，質疑聲越來越大。	But doubts are intensifying over whether it’s still up to the job.	翻譯成中文。
在這樣的背景下，共和黨的稅收改革——不論在經濟上多麼站不住腳、多麼令人髮指地不公——都遠遠不是美國最大的隱憂。	In this context, the Republicans’ tax reform, however economically indefensible and blatantly unfair it is, is far from America’s biggest concern.	翻譯成中文。
民粹主義經驗的各種變體	The Varieties of Populist Experience	翻譯成中文。
LONDON – Emmanuel Macron’s decisive defeat of Marine Le Pen in the French presidential runoff was a major victory for liberal Europe.	倫敦—馬克龍在法國總統競選決戰中決定性地擊敗瑪麗娜·勒龐（Marine Le Pen），這是自由歐洲的一次偉大勝利。	翻譯成英文。
但這只是一場戰鬥，而不是整場戰爭。	But it was a battle, not a war.	翻譯成中文。
The idea that one in three French citizens would vote for the National Front’s Le Pen was inconceivable only a few years ago.	每三個法國公民就有一人投票給國民陣線的勒龐，這樣的概念在幾年前還令人無法置信。	翻譯成英文。
Commentators have affixed the “populist” label to the wave of demagogic politics sweeping Europe (and much of the rest of the world).	評論家給目前席捲歐洲（和世界其餘大部）的煽動政治貼上了“民粹主義”的標籤。	翻譯成英文。
But, beyond the raucous style common to populists, what do these movements share?	但是，除了民粹主義者常見的聒噪風格，這些運動還有那些共同點？	翻譯成英文。
After all, Spain’s Podemos and Greece’s Syriza are of the left.	畢竟，西班牙社會民主黨（Podemos）和希臘左翼聯盟（Syriza）屬於左派。	翻譯成英文。
France’s National Front, the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom, and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) are of the right.	法國國民陣線、荷蘭自由黨（Party for Freedom）和德國另類選擇黨（AfD）屬於右派。	翻譯成英文。
Beppe Grillo, the leader of Italy’s Five Star Movement, says that his movement is neither left nor right.	義大利五星運動（Five Star Movement）領導人畢普·格里洛（Beppe Grillo）則說他的運動既不左也不右。	翻譯成英文。
但所有這些運動都有共同主題：經濟民族主義、社會保護、反歐主義、反全球化，以及敵視政治建制甚至政治本身。	And yet common themes run through all of them: economic nationalism, social protection, anti-Europeanism, anti-globalization, and hostility not just to the political establishment, but to politics itself.	翻譯成中文。
To understand what this might mean for the evolution of European politics, consider the history of fascism.	要理解這對歐洲政治的演進意味著什麼，可以看看法西斯的歷史。	翻譯成英文。
Benito Mussolini, the founder of Italian fascism in 1919, started as a revolutionary socialist.	1919年在義大利創立法西斯的墨索里尼一開始是一位革命派社會主義者。	翻譯成英文。
In Germany, the word Nazi was, we should recall, short for National Socialist German Workers’ Party.	我們也應該沒有忘記，德國“納粹”一詞原本是國家社會黨（National Socialist German Workers’ Party）的簡稱。	翻譯成英文。
一開始，法西斯是一場民族主義反資本主義運動。	Initially, fascism was a nationalist, anti-capitalist movement.	翻譯成中文。
隨後，它將抨擊限定於自由資本主義，特別是“國際金融”。	Later it confined its attack to liberal capitalism, especially “international finance.”	翻譯成中文。
而這很快轉變為反猶主義——德國社會民主黨的奧古斯特·貝貝爾（August Bebel）為它起了一個著名的名字“愚人社會主義”。	And this soon shaded into anti-Semitism – what the German Social Democrat August Bebel famously called “the socialism of fools.”	翻譯成中文。
歐洲法西斯隨著1945年德國戰敗而分崩離析，但其比較不激烈的形式在其他地方繼續存在，如阿根廷的庇隆主義。	European fascism collapsed with the defeat of Germany in 1945, but less aggressive forms lived on elsewhere, such as Argentina with its Peronism.	翻譯成中文。
The social base of interwar fascism made it reasonable to see it as a party of the right.	法西斯在兩次大戰之間的社會基礎使得人們合理地將其視為右翼政黨。	翻譯成英文。
At the time, the working class dependably supported parties of the left.	當時，工人階級是左翼的可靠支援。	翻譯成英文。
法西斯僅剩的政治生存空間是小資產階級：商店主、小商人和底層公務員。	The only political space left for fascism was the petit bourgeoisie: shopkeepers, small businessmen, and low-level civil servants.	翻譯成中文。
如今，左翼政治的社會基礎已經消失。	Today, the social basis of left-wing politics has vanished.	翻譯成中文。
經典的工人階級難覓其蹤：社會民主黨和工會只是它們的前身的殘影。	The classic working class has disappeared: social democratic parties and trade unions are shadows of their former selves.	翻譯成中文。
這意味著左翼民粹主義難免要被迫與右翼民粹主義爭奪在兩次大戰之間轉向法西斯的那群人：年輕失業男性，那些感到受到銀行家、全球供應鏈、腐敗政客、遙不可及的歐盟官僚和各種“權勢人物”所組成的“寡頭”的威脅的“小人物”。	This means that left-wing populists are inevitably compelled to compete with right-wing populists for the support of exactly the same groups that turned to fascism between the wars: young unemployed males, the “small man” who feels threatened by the “oligarchy” of bankers, global supply chains, corrupt politicians, remote European Union bureaucrats, and “fat cats” of all kinds. Today’s populists, of whatever political stripe, increasingly target not just the same potential supporters, but the enemies as well.	翻譯成中文。
How much space exists for populism’s further growth, and which variety – socialist or fascist – will attract the available votes?	民粹主義的未來增長還剩下多少空間，哪種民粹主義變體——社會主義或法西斯——會能夠吸引可以利用的選民？	翻譯成英文。
對於這個問題的第一部分，美國前總統克林頓在1992年的競選口號可以提供一個寬泛的答案：“經濟最重要，笨蛋。	The broad answer to the first part of the question was provided by former US President Bill Clinton’s 1992 election campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid.”	翻譯成中文。
The EU has been the slowest of the world’s major economic centers to recover from the post-2008 slump.	”2008年大崩盤後，歐盟是世界主要經濟中心中復甦最慢的。	翻譯成英文。
In France, the unemployment rate is 10%.	法國失業率仍高達10%。	翻譯成英文。
Youth unemployment there is around 24%, and 34% in Italy – creating fertile recruiting ground for the extremes of left and right.	年輕人失業率法國為24%左右，義大利為34%左右——這給極端左翼和右翼提供了肥沃的生長土地。	翻譯成英文。
馬克龍從任何方面看都不是死硬財政鷹派，但他希望將法國政府赤字從GDP的3. 4%減少到3%，以符合歐盟穩定與增長公約制定的上限。	Though Macron is by no means an obsessive fiscal hawk, he wants to narrow the French government deficit from 3.4% to 3% of GDP, in line with the ceiling set by the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact.	翻譯成中文。
這將危及120,000個公務員崗位。	In the firing line are 120,000 civil service jobs.	翻譯成中文。
但他還想通過一份500億歐元的刺激計劃和擴大福利國家來刺激經濟。	Yet he also wants to boost the economy with a €50 billion ($55 billion) stimulus package and extend the welfare state.	翻譯成中文。
To square the circle, Macron needs growth, and he is relying on supply-side reforms to deliver it.	為了成功，馬克龍需要增長，而他依靠供給側改革來實現增長。	翻譯成英文。
He plans to cut the corporate-tax rate from 33% to 25% and exclude financial investment from wealth taxation.	他計劃將公司稅率從33%降低到25%，並免徵金融投資的財富稅。	翻譯成英文。
馬克龍大力批評保護主義，將推動歐盟-加拿大全面經濟與貿易協定和與美國的跨大西洋貿易和投資夥伴關係。	A vocal critic of protectionism, he will push for the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the United States.	翻譯成中文。
His support of the El Khomri law, which made it easier to fire workers, and his opposition to the 35-hour week, indicate his desire to increase the French labor market’s “flexibility.”	他支援讓解僱工人更加方便的科姆裡法（El Khomri law），反對每週35小時工作制，這表明他渴望增加法國勞動力市場的“靈活性”。	翻譯成英文。
儘管馬克龍的計劃談到了“綠色經濟”，呼籲實施泛歐洲的投資計劃，但廣義上仍屬於新自由派。	Despite talk of the “green economy” and calls for a Europe-wide investment program, Macron’s agenda is broadly neoliberal.	翻譯成中文。
Essentially, Macron is hoping that his agenda, if implemented at the EU level, will lift not just the French economy, but all European boats.	本質上，馬克龍希望他的日程如果能夠在歐盟層面得以實施，不但將提升法國經濟，還將讓整個歐洲受益。	翻譯成英文。
In fact, the likelihood is that such reforms will sink all boats, giving the populists their chance.	事實上，更大的可能是這些改革將讓整條船沉入水底，讓民粹主義者獲得機會。	翻譯成英文。
果真如此的話，哪一種民粹主義將抓住這個機會？	In that case, which variety of populist will seize the opportunity?	翻譯成中文。
經濟學家丹尼·羅德里克（Dani Rodrik）集中關注了民粹主義的號召力。	The economist Dani Rodrik puts the appeal of populism into focus.	翻譯成中文。
He argues that democracy, national sovereignty, and global economic integration are mutually incompatible; at least one must be sacrificed.	他指出，民主、國家主權和全球經濟一體化互不相容；至少必須犧牲其中一個。	翻譯成英文。
Given that many voters in Europe and the US feel battered by globalization, a populist party that aggressively puts the nation first has a head start against its rivals.	考慮到歐洲和美國的許多選民感到受到了全球化的重創，激進地要求國家第一的民粹主義政黨贏得了起跑線。	翻譯成英文。
From this perspective, Macron was the ideal candidate for Le Pen to lose to.	從這個角度講，馬克龍是勒龐的理想的戰勝者。	翻譯成英文。
他堪稱全球主義精英的化身。	He embodies the globalist elite.	翻譯成中文。
他在移民問題上立場較軟。	He appears soft on immigration.	翻譯成中文。
此外，如果他的新政黨不能在下個月的國民大會選舉中贏得多數，那麼他的政府將需要來自主流政黨的支援。	And, assuming that his new political party fails to win a majority in next month’s National Assembly election, his government will require support from the mainstream parties.	翻譯成中文。
在未來五年，建制派人物的政策可能一敗塗地，成為勒龐的國民陣線在2022年總統競選中的完美目標。	Over the next five years, establishment figures may well coalesce around failing policies, giving Le Pen the perfect target for the National Front’s 2022 presidential campaign.	翻譯成中文。
平心而論，對左派政策的支援在法國是絕對存在的。	To be sure, support for a leftist program certainly exists in France.	翻譯成中文。
About 20% of voters backed the left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the presidential election’s first round. In the second round, one particularly illuminating Twitter hashtag was #NiPatronNiPatrie (“neither boss nor country”), reflecting many voters’ dissatisfaction with the election’s choice between neoliberalism and nationalism.	大約20%的選民在總統競選的第一輪中支援左翼民粹主義者讓-盧克·梅朗雄（Jean-Luc Mélenchon），這表明許多選民不滿於只在新自由主義和民族主義之間做出選擇。	翻譯成英文。
The task of the left is to direct attention to the truly problematic aspects of global economic integration – financialization, the prioritization of capital over labor, of creditor over debtor, of patron over ouvrier – without lapsing into reactionary politics.	左翼的任務是將注意力引向全球經濟一體化中真正存在問題的部分——金融化、資本壓倒勞動力、債權人壓倒債務人、主顧壓倒工人——而不要落入反動政治的陷阱。	翻譯成英文。
重大變故中的委內瑞拉	D-Day Venezuela	翻譯成中文。
CAMBRIDGE – The Venezuelan crisis is moving relentlessly from catastrophic to unimaginable.	劍橋——委內瑞拉危機正在從一場災難殘酷無情地轉化為超出任何人的想象。	翻譯成英文。
痛苦、人類災難和破壞之嚴重已經足以促使國際社會重新思考如何提供幫助。	The level of misery, human suffering, and destruction has reached a point where the international community must rethink how it can help.	翻譯成中文。
Two years ago, I warned of a coming famine in Venezuela, akin to Ukraine’s 1932-1933 Holomodor.	兩年前，我曾警告委內瑞拉即將發生饑荒，就像1932到1933年烏克蘭的大饑荒一樣。	翻譯成英文。
On December 17, The New York Times published front-page photographs of this man-made disaster.	12月17日，《紐約時報》頭版頭條刊發了這場人為災難的實景照。	翻譯成英文。
7月，我曾描述過委內瑞拉經濟災難史無前例的性質，記錄了產量、收入、生活與健康水平的崩潰性下滑。	In July, I described the unprecedented nature of Venezuela’s economic calamity, documenting the collapse in output, incomes, and living and health standards.	翻譯成中文。
我引用的一個最有說服力的資料也許就是以最廉價卡路里計算的最低工資（普通工人所掙得的中位數工資），該資料已經從2012年5月的每天52，854卡路里下降到2017年5月的僅7，005卡路里——根本不夠支撐一個五口之家的生活。	Probably the single most telling statistic I cited was that the minimum wage (the wage earned by the median worker) measured in the cheapest available calorie, had declined from 52,854 calories per day in May 2012 to just 7,005 by May 2017 – not enough to feed a family of five.	翻譯成中文。
自那以後，情況進一步大幅惡化。	Since then, conditions have deteriorated dramatically.	翻譯成中文。
截止上個月，最低工資已經驟降至每天僅能提供 2,740卡路里。	By last month, the minimum wage had fallen to just 2,740 calories a day.	翻譯成中文。

出於一個重要的立法原因，未來預期預算將轉為盈餘。

There is an important legislative reason why the projected budget will return to surplus in the future.

翻譯成中文。

共和黨在參議院僅佔微弱多數，而參議院的冗長演說規則要求大部分立法需要五分之三多數才能通過，因此，民主黨有能力阻撓共和黨的稅收日程。

The Republicans have only a very small majority in the Senate, where the filibuster rule requires a three-fifths majority to pass most legislation, giving the Democrats the ability to block the Republican tax agenda.

翻譯成中文。

但一個例外可以讓稅收和支出法案在簡單多數情況下獲得通過，即預算能夠在十年後轉為盈餘。

But an exception allows tax and spending bills to be passed with a simple majority if the resulting budget returns to surplus after ten years.

翻譯成中文。

共和黨可以據此設計稅收和支出規則，逐步提高未來稅收收入增量，實現必要的長期盈餘。

By designing the tax and spending rules accordingly and phasing in future revenue increases, the Republicans can achieve the needed long-term surpluses.

翻譯成中文。

因此，我對於有利於增加資本形成和增長的稅收改革能夠通過持樂觀態度，對於由此導致的一切預算赤字的增加都只是暫時現象也持樂觀態度。

As a result, I am optimistic that a tax reform serving to increase capital formation and growth will be enacted, and that any resulting increase in the budget deficit will be only temporary.

翻譯成中文。

破產的美國製度

America’s Broken System

翻譯成中文。

BERKELEY – The tax bill that US Republicans have doggedly pushed through Congress is not as big a deal as many are portraying it to be.

伯克利—美國共和黨固執地要在國會通過的稅收法案的意義並不像很多人所描繪的那麼大。

翻譯成英文。

這是個中等規模的訊息。

It is medium-size news.

翻譯成中文。

大訊息——分量重得多、情況也惡劣得多的訊息——在別的地方。

The big news – the much more weighty and ominous news – lies elsewhere.

翻譯成中文。

當然，中等規模也不可等閒視之。

Of course, medium-size is not nothing.

翻譯成中文。

If the tax bill does clear its final hurdle – a conference committee must reconcile the Senate-approved bill with that of the House of Representatives – and become law, it will complicate the tax system considerably, as it opens many loopholes.

如果稅收法案真的清除了最後的障礙——必須成立一個委員會來協調參議院通過的法案和眾議院通過的法案——併成為法律，它讓稅收制度大大複雜化，因為它開啟了大量漏洞。

翻譯成英文。

它不會對經濟增長有任何影響——不管是積極影響還是消極影響——但會給政府融資帶來影響，造成的稅收收入降幅大約相當於國民收入的1%。

It won’t have any impact on economic growth – positive or negative – but it would have an impact on the government’s finances, causing revenues to decline by the equivalent of about 1% of national income.

翻譯成中文。

The missing resources would most likely be transferred to the top 1% of earners, raising their share of total income from 22% to 23%.

損失的資源最有可能會轉移給最頂層1%的收入群體，他們佔總收入的比重將從22%提高到23%。最頂層0.

翻譯成英文。

The top 0.01% would probably gain the most, with their share of income rising from 5.1% to 5.5%.

01%的群體或許是收益最大的群體，他們佔總收入的比重將從5. 1%提高到5.

翻譯成英文。

5%。從這個角度講，這項稅收計劃將給日益堅固的美國財法治國堡壘在新增一塊磚塊——不是一塊大磚，而是一塊中等規模的磚塊。

In this sense, the tax plan would be another brick – not a huge brick, but a medium-size brick – in the increasingly impregnable fortress of American plutocracy.

翻譯成中文。

但法案和可能根本無法成為法律。

But the bill may well not become law at all.

翻譯成中文。

Consider the Republicans’ efforts earlier this year to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) – an effort that, it now seems clear, was pure Dingbat Kabuki.

想一想今年早些時候共和黨取消和取代平價醫療法（“奧巴馬醫保”）的努力——現在看來，這些努力和街頭賣藝差不多。

翻譯成英文。

The Republicans didn’t actually want to take responsibility for changing the health-care financing system, much less strip their own constituents of health care.

共和黨並不真的想承擔改變醫藥費體系的責任，更不想剝奪自己的支持者的醫保。

翻譯成英文。

但共和黨的宣傳部門竭盡全力要讓它的票倉相信奧巴馬醫保是對美國的赤裸裸的緊迫威脅，美國領導人必須有所行動，好像他們正在認真地採取措施兌現取消和取代承諾一樣。

But the party’s propaganda arm had worked so hard to convince its base that Obamacare represented a clear and present danger to the country that its leaders had to act as if they were making a serious effort to fulfill their promise to repeal and replace it.

翻譯成中文。

因此，眾議院的共和黨多數給該法案投了贊成票，他們有信心法案會被有100個席位、但其中52個共和黨中只有不到40人真的希望該法案通過的參議院會將它“槍斃”。

So a majority of Republicans in the House of Representatives voted for the bill, expecting, with reasonable confidence, that it would be blocked in the 100-member Senate, where fewer than 40 of the 52 Republicans actually wanted it to pass.

翻譯成中文。

Had any of the three Republican senators who voted against the bill – John McCain of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine, or Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – made a different choice, there were probably about five more who would have stepped in to nix it.

如果反對該法案的三位共和黨參議員——亞利桑那州的約翰·麥凱恩（John McCain）、緬因州的蘇珊·柯林斯（Susan Collins）和阿拉斯加州的麗莎·莫爾科夫斯基（Lisa Murkowski）——中的任何一位做出不同的選擇，都可能會有五位其他參議員站出來反對。

翻譯成英文。

稅收法案可能也會是如此。

The same thing may be happening with the tax reform.

翻譯成中文。

It depends on whether at least three of the ten Republican senators who have raised objections are serious, or are playing a different game of Dingbat Kabuki: seeking to trick their constituents into thinking that they went the extra mile to try to help them, and are not puppets of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

這取決於在十名舉手反對的共和黨參議員中，是否至少有三人是認真的，還是在玩不同的街頭賣藝遊戲：試圖欺騙選民認為他們不辭萬難要幫助他們，而不是參議院多數黨領袖米奇·麥康奈爾（Mitch McConnell）的傀儡。

翻譯成英文。

But, regardless of whether the tax bill survives the reconciliation process and becomes law, the big news won’t change: the Anglo-Saxon model of representative government is in serious trouble.

但不論稅收法案是否能通過協調過程併成為法律，大訊息不會改變：盎格魯-薩克遜式代議制民主陷入了嚴重的麻煩。

翻譯成英文。

並且看不到解決辦法。

And there is no solution in sight.

翻譯成中文。

For some 400 years, the Anglo-Saxon governance model – exemplified by the republican semi-principality of the Netherlands, the constitutional monarchy of the United Kingdom, and the constitutional republic of the United States of America – was widely regarded as having hit the sweet spot of liberty, security, and prosperity.

400年來，盎格魯-薩克遜治理模式——以半封建制的荷蘭、君主立憲制的英國和立憲民主制的美國為代表——被廣泛認為集合了自由、安全和繁榮的優點。

翻譯成英文。

The greater the divergence from that model, historical experience seemed to confirm, the higher the likelihood of repression, insecurity, and poverty.

歷史經驗似乎證明，越是偏離這一模式，發生鎮壓、不安全和貧困的可能性越大。

翻譯成英文。

因此各國時時被強烈建議模仿這些制度。

So countries were frequently and strongly advised to emulate those institutions.

翻譯成中文。

Nobody would dare offer that same advice today.

今天，沒人再敢提出這樣的建議了。

翻譯成英文。

The UK, having been thrown into devastating austerity by Conservative and Liberal leaders after the global economic crisis, is now being led by the Conservatives toward a messy and damaging Brexit.

全球經濟危機發生後，保守派和自由派領導人將英國扔進了災難性的緊縮之中，如今，在保守黨的領導下，英國正在邁向混亂和破壞性的退歐。

翻譯成英文。

And, in the US, the election of President Donald Trump heralded the age of “alternative facts” and “governance by tweet,” overseen by an erratic and ignorant leader who is clearly in over his head.

而在美國，總統特朗普的當選預示著“另類事實”和“推特治國”時代的到來，領導這個國家的將是一個反覆而無知的、顯然是心智失常的領導人。

翻譯成英文。

When Trump was first elected, some argued that it did not have to be a disaster.

特朗普剛剛當選時，一些人認為這未必是一場災難。

翻譯成英文。

畢竟，樂觀派指出，里根總統更多地是“國家元首”而不是“首席執政”，小布什也是如此。

After all, the optimists pointed out, President Ronald Reagan had been more a “chief of state” than a “chief executive,” as had George W. Bush.

翻譯成中文。

As divisive as Chief of State Trump would be, according to this view, he wouldn’t derail policy, because electing a Republican president is more like electing the Republican Party establishment.

根據這一觀點，作為果斷的國家元首的特朗普不會讓政策脫軌，因為選擇一位共和黨政府更像是選擇了共和黨建制派。

翻譯成英文。

這批人深不可測，且能力很強，儘管最近幾年有所削弱。

And that bench was very deep and very competent, despite its weakening in recent years.

翻譯成中文。

樂觀派錯了。

The optimists were wrong.

翻譯成中文。

共和黨控制國會兩院和白宮已近一年，但在四大政策目標上全面受挫：取消和取代奧巴馬醫保、基礎設施開發、貿易政策改革，以及稅收改革。

After nearly a year in control of both houses of Congress and the White House, the Republicans haven’t achieved any of their four policy goals: repeal and replacement of Obamacare, infrastructure development, trade-policy reform, or even tax reform.

翻譯成中文。

這表明政治和治理制度已經破產，並且美國想不到辦法來修補。

This points to a broken system of politics and governance, one that Americans seem to have no idea how to fix.

翻譯成中文。

美國仍然是全世界最強大的超級大國。

The US remains the world’s preeminent superpower.

翻譯成中文。

但對於它能否保持這一地位，質疑聲越來越大。

But doubts are intensifying over whether it’s still up to the job.

翻譯成中文。

在這樣的背景下，共和黨的稅收改革——不論在經濟上多麼站不住腳、多麼令人髮指地不公——都遠遠不是美國最大的隱憂。

In this context, the Republicans’ tax reform, however economically indefensible and blatantly unfair it is, is far from America’s biggest concern.

翻譯成中文。

民粹主義經驗的各種變體

The Varieties of Populist Experience

翻譯成中文。

LONDON – Emmanuel Macron’s decisive defeat of Marine Le Pen in the French presidential runoff was a major victory for liberal Europe.

倫敦—馬克龍在法國總統競選決戰中決定性地擊敗瑪麗娜·勒龐（Marine Le Pen），這是自由歐洲的一次偉大勝利。

翻譯成英文。

但這只是一場戰鬥，而不是整場戰爭。

But it was a battle, not a war.

翻譯成中文。

The idea that one in three French citizens would vote for the National Front’s Le Pen was inconceivable only a few years ago.

每三個法國公民就有一人投票給國民陣線的勒龐，這樣的概念在幾年前還令人無法置信。

翻譯成英文。

Commentators have affixed the “populist” label to the wave of demagogic politics sweeping Europe (and much of the rest of the world).

評論家給目前席捲歐洲（和世界其餘大部）的煽動政治貼上了“民粹主義”的標籤。

翻譯成英文。

But, beyond the raucous style common to populists, what do these movements share?

但是，除了民粹主義者常見的聒噪風格，這些運動還有那些共同點？

翻譯成英文。

After all, Spain’s Podemos and Greece’s Syriza are of the left.

畢竟，西班牙社會民主黨（Podemos）和希臘左翼聯盟（Syriza）屬於左派。

翻譯成英文。

France’s National Front, the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom, and Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) are of the right.

法國國民陣線、荷蘭自由黨（Party for Freedom）和德國另類選擇黨（AfD）屬於右派。

翻譯成英文。

Beppe Grillo, the leader of Italy’s Five Star Movement, says that his movement is neither left nor right.

義大利五星運動（Five Star Movement）領導人畢普·格里洛（Beppe Grillo）則說他的運動既不左也不右。

翻譯成英文。

但所有這些運動都有共同主題：經濟民族主義、社會保護、反歐主義、反全球化，以及敵視政治建制甚至政治本身。

And yet common themes run through all of them: economic nationalism, social protection, anti-Europeanism, anti-globalization, and hostility not just to the political establishment, but to politics itself.

翻譯成中文。

To understand what this might mean for the evolution of European politics, consider the history of fascism.

要理解這對歐洲政治的演進意味著什麼，可以看看法西斯的歷史。

翻譯成英文。

Benito Mussolini, the founder of Italian fascism in 1919, started as a revolutionary socialist.

1919年在義大利創立法西斯的墨索里尼一開始是一位革命派社會主義者。

翻譯成英文。

In Germany, the word Nazi was, we should recall, short for National Socialist German Workers’ Party.

我們也應該沒有忘記，德國“納粹”一詞原本是國家社會黨（National Socialist German Workers’ Party）的簡稱。

翻譯成英文。

一開始，法西斯是一場民族主義反資本主義運動。

Initially, fascism was a nationalist, anti-capitalist movement.

翻譯成中文。

隨後，它將抨擊限定於自由資本主義，特別是“國際金融”。

Later it confined its attack to liberal capitalism, especially “international finance.”

翻譯成中文。

而這很快轉變為反猶主義——德國社會民主黨的奧古斯特·貝貝爾（August Bebel）為它起了一個著名的名字“愚人社會主義”。

And this soon shaded into anti-Semitism – what the German Social Democrat August Bebel famously called “the socialism of fools.”

翻譯成中文。

歐洲法西斯隨著1945年德國戰敗而分崩離析，但其比較不激烈的形式在其他地方繼續存在，如阿根廷的庇隆主義。

European fascism collapsed with the defeat of Germany in 1945, but less aggressive forms lived on elsewhere, such as Argentina with its Peronism.

翻譯成中文。

The social base of interwar fascism made it reasonable to see it as a party of the right.

法西斯在兩次大戰之間的社會基礎使得人們合理地將其視為右翼政黨。

翻譯成英文。

At the time, the working class dependably supported parties of the left.

當時，工人階級是左翼的可靠支援。

翻譯成英文。

法西斯僅剩的政治生存空間是小資產階級：商店主、小商人和底層公務員。

The only political space left for fascism was the petit bourgeoisie: shopkeepers, small businessmen, and low-level civil servants.

翻譯成中文。

如今，左翼政治的社會基礎已經消失。

Today, the social basis of left-wing politics has vanished.

翻譯成中文。

經典的工人階級難覓其蹤：社會民主黨和工會只是它們的前身的殘影。

The classic working class has disappeared: social democratic parties and trade unions are shadows of their former selves.

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這意味著左翼民粹主義難免要被迫與右翼民粹主義爭奪在兩次大戰之間轉向法西斯的那群人：年輕失業男性，那些感到受到銀行家、全球供應鏈、腐敗政客、遙不可及的歐盟官僚和各種“權勢人物”所組成的“寡頭”的威脅的“小人物”。

This means that left-wing populists are inevitably compelled to compete with right-wing populists for the support of exactly the same groups that turned to fascism between the wars: young unemployed males, the “small man” who feels threatened by the “oligarchy” of bankers, global supply chains, corrupt politicians, remote European Union bureaucrats, and “fat cats” of all kinds. Today’s populists, of whatever political stripe, increasingly target not just the same potential supporters, but the enemies as well.

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How much space exists for populism’s further growth, and which variety – socialist or fascist – will attract the available votes?

民粹主義的未來增長還剩下多少空間，哪種民粹主義變體——社會主義或法西斯——會能夠吸引可以利用的選民？

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對於這個問題的第一部分，美國前總統克林頓在1992年的競選口號可以提供一個寬泛的答案：“經濟最重要，笨蛋。

The broad answer to the first part of the question was provided by former US President Bill Clinton’s 1992 election campaign: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

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The EU has been the slowest of the world’s major economic centers to recover from the post-2008 slump.

”2008年大崩盤後，歐盟是世界主要經濟中心中復甦最慢的。

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In France, the unemployment rate is 10%.

法國失業率仍高達10%。

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Youth unemployment there is around 24%, and 34% in Italy – creating fertile recruiting ground for the extremes of left and right.

年輕人失業率法國為24%左右，義大利為34%左右——這給極端左翼和右翼提供了肥沃的生長土地。

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馬克龍從任何方面看都不是死硬財政鷹派，但他希望將法國政府赤字從GDP的3. 4%減少到3%，以符合歐盟穩定與增長公約制定的上限。

Though Macron is by no means an obsessive fiscal hawk, he wants to narrow the French government deficit from 3.4% to 3% of GDP, in line with the ceiling set by the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact.

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這將危及120,000個公務員崗位。

In the firing line are 120,000 civil service jobs.

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但他還想通過一份500億歐元的刺激計劃和擴大福利國家來刺激經濟。

Yet he also wants to boost the economy with a €50 billion ($55 billion) stimulus package and extend the welfare state.

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To square the circle, Macron needs growth, and he is relying on supply-side reforms to deliver it.

為了成功，馬克龍需要增長，而他依靠供給側改革來實現增長。

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He plans to cut the corporate-tax rate from 33% to 25% and exclude financial investment from wealth taxation.

他計劃將公司稅率從33%降低到25%，並免徵金融投資的財富稅。

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馬克龍大力批評保護主義，將推動歐盟-加拿大全面經濟與貿易協定和與美國的跨大西洋貿易和投資夥伴關係。

A vocal critic of protectionism, he will push for the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the United States.

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His support of the El Khomri law, which made it easier to fire workers, and his opposition to the 35-hour week, indicate his desire to increase the French labor market’s “flexibility.”

他支援讓解僱工人更加方便的科姆裡法（El Khomri law），反對每週35小時工作制，這表明他渴望增加法國勞動力市場的“靈活性”。

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儘管馬克龍的計劃談到了“綠色經濟”，呼籲實施泛歐洲的投資計劃，但廣義上仍屬於新自由派。

Despite talk of the “green economy” and calls for a Europe-wide investment program, Macron’s agenda is broadly neoliberal.

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Essentially, Macron is hoping that his agenda, if implemented at the EU level, will lift not just the French economy, but all European boats.

本質上，馬克龍希望他的日程如果能夠在歐盟層面得以實施，不但將提升法國經濟，還將讓整個歐洲受益。

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In fact, the likelihood is that such reforms will sink all boats, giving the populists their chance.

事實上，更大的可能是這些改革將讓整條船沉入水底，讓民粹主義者獲得機會。

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果真如此的話，哪一種民粹主義將抓住這個機會？

In that case, which variety of populist will seize the opportunity?

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經濟學家丹尼·羅德里克（Dani Rodrik）集中關注了民粹主義的號召力。

The economist Dani Rodrik puts the appeal of populism into focus.

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He argues that democracy, national sovereignty, and global economic integration are mutually incompatible; at least one must be sacrificed.

他指出，民主、國家主權和全球經濟一體化互不相容；至少必須犧牲其中一個。

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Given that many voters in Europe and the US feel battered by globalization, a populist party that aggressively puts the nation first has a head start against its rivals.

考慮到歐洲和美國的許多選民感到受到了全球化的重創，激進地要求國家第一的民粹主義政黨贏得了起跑線。

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From this perspective, Macron was the ideal candidate for Le Pen to lose to.

從這個角度講，馬克龍是勒龐的理想的戰勝者。

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他堪稱全球主義精英的化身。

He embodies the globalist elite.

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他在移民問題上立場較軟。

He appears soft on immigration.

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此外，如果他的新政黨不能在下個月的國民大會選舉中贏得多數，那麼他的政府將需要來自主流政黨的支援。

And, assuming that his new political party fails to win a majority in next month’s National Assembly election, his government will require support from the mainstream parties.

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在未來五年，建制派人物的政策可能一敗塗地，成為勒龐的國民陣線在2022年總統競選中的完美目標。

Over the next five years, establishment figures may well coalesce around failing policies, giving Le Pen the perfect target for the National Front’s 2022 presidential campaign.

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平心而論，對左派政策的支援在法國是絕對存在的。

To be sure, support for a leftist program certainly exists in France.

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About 20% of voters backed the left-wing populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the presidential election’s first round. In the second round, one particularly illuminating Twitter hashtag was #NiPatronNiPatrie (“neither boss nor country”), reflecting many voters’ dissatisfaction with the election’s choice between neoliberalism and nationalism.

大約20%的選民在總統競選的第一輪中支援左翼民粹主義者讓-盧克·梅朗雄（Jean-Luc Mélenchon），這表明許多選民不滿於只在新自由主義和民族主義之間做出選擇。

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The task of the left is to direct attention to the truly problematic aspects of global economic integration – financialization, the prioritization of capital over labor, of creditor over debtor, of patron over ouvrier – without lapsing into reactionary politics.

左翼的任務是將注意力引向全球經濟一體化中真正存在問題的部分——金融化、資本壓倒勞動力、債權人壓倒債務人、主顧壓倒工人——而不要落入反動政治的陷阱。

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重大變故中的委內瑞拉

D-Day Venezuela

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CAMBRIDGE – The Venezuelan crisis is moving relentlessly from catastrophic to unimaginable.

劍橋——委內瑞拉危機正在從一場災難殘酷無情地轉化為超出任何人的想象。

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痛苦、人類災難和破壞之嚴重已經足以促使國際社會重新思考如何提供幫助。

The level of misery, human suffering, and destruction has reached a point where the international community must rethink how it can help.

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Two years ago, I warned of a coming famine in Venezuela, akin to Ukraine’s 1932-1933 Holomodor.

兩年前，我曾警告委內瑞拉即將發生饑荒，就像1932到1933年烏克蘭的大饑荒一樣。

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On December 17, The New York Times published front-page photographs of this man-made disaster.

12月17日，《紐約時報》頭版頭條刊發了這場人為災難的實景照。

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7月，我曾描述過委內瑞拉經濟災難史無前例的性質，記錄了產量、收入、生活與健康水平的崩潰性下滑。

In July, I described the unprecedented nature of Venezuela’s economic calamity, documenting the collapse in output, incomes, and living and health standards.

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我引用的一個最有說服力的資料也許就是以最廉價卡路里計算的最低工資（普通工人所掙得的中位數工資），該資料已經從2012年5月的每天52，854卡路里下降到2017年5月的僅7，005卡路里——根本不夠支撐一個五口之家的生活。

Probably the single most telling statistic I cited was that the minimum wage (the wage earned by the median worker) measured in the cheapest available calorie, had declined from 52,854 calories per day in May 2012 to just 7,005 by May 2017 – not enough to feed a family of five.

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自那以後，情況進一步大幅惡化。

Since then, conditions have deteriorated dramatically.

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截止上個月，最低工資已經驟降至每天僅能提供 2,740卡路里。

By last month, the minimum wage had fallen to just 2,740 calories a day.

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